Predicting the 2019 Primetime Emmy winners: See TV critic Verne Gay's picks

THE NOMINEES

Jason Bateman as Martin "Marty" Byrde, "Ozark" (Netflix)

Sterling K. Brown as Randall Pearson on "This Is Us" (NBC)

Kit Harington as Jon Snow on "Game of Thrones" (HBO)

Bob Odenkirk as Jimmy McGill on "Better Call Saul" (AMC)

Billy Porter as Pray Tell on "Pose" (FX)

Milo Ventimiglia as Jack Pearson on "This Is Us" (NBC)

MY SAY Billy Porter should win, but "should" is a slippery word when the subject is the Emmys. His performance as Pray Tell was both dazzling and gender-bending. A fine Broadway actor arrives on TV for the first time, and shows us how it should be done? Porter did. Nevertheless, Bateman and Odenkirk are the front-runners. They were great, and Odenkirk has been my personal favorite for years. Nevertheless, while Porter should win, consider yourself forewarned, PrayTell fans.

THE NOMINEES

Viola Davis as Annalise Keating on "How to Get Away with Murder" (ABC)

Laura Linney as Wendy Byrde, "Ozark," (Netflix)

Emilia Clarke as Daenerys Targaryen on "Game of Thrones" (HBO)

Jodie Comer as Oksana Astankova / Villanelle on "Killing Eve" (BBC America) 

Mandy Moore as Rebecca Pearson on "This Is Us" (NBC)

Sandra Oh as Eve Polastri on "Killing Eve" (BBC America)

Robin Wright as Claire Underwood on "House of Cards" (Netflix)

MY SAY Of course a case can be made for each of these nominees. Linney, for example, was superb in her Emmy-nominated "Ozark" episode ("No Way Out" — the one where she was kidnapped.) Moore is a crowd favorite and is always good. Previous winner Davis is spectacular still. And Clarke — dear, abused Danny — should get a special Emmy just for what "Got" put here through by the end.

But this award will go to … Oh. It should go to Comer, who gave a consistently more riveting performance, certainly a more enjoyable one, over both seasons, but what's fair got to do with this? Oh's got the Big Mo, and that's what counts most.

THE NOMINEES

Anthony Anderson as Andre "Dre" Johnson, Sr. on "Black-ish" (ABC)

Don Cheadle as Mo Monroe on "Black Monday" (Showtime)

Ted Danson as Michael on "The Good Place" (NBC)

Michael Douglas as Sandy Kominsky on "The Kominsky Method" (Netflix)

Bill Hader as Barry Berkman / Barry Block on "Barry" (HBO)

Eugene Levy as Johnny Rose on "Schitt's Creek" (Pop TV)

MY SAY Here's the problem with the "surprise factor." It's usually wrong. Not always, but usually, and the comedy category is most typically surprise-resistant. The last time there was a genuine upset in the actress category was in 2011, when Molly McCarthy won, (She wasn't the surprise — the fact that a CBS sitcom star won was). But the last time in the actor category was just last year when Hader upset Donald Glover, who was expected to repeat for "Atlanta."

One reason that the surprise factor usually loses is that the Emmy voters actually read what the prognosticators have to say, and they know they'd better have a good reason if they decide to play the contrarian card. Unfortunately, neither Hader nor Louis-Dreyfus gave them one. Hader's nominated episode, "The Truth Has a Ring to It," played exactly to his strengths in this series: The deeply conflicted hit man who purges his guilt on the stage. The performance was harrowing, if not exactly comedic, but there you have it: Harrowing wins the day.

THE NOMINEES

Christina Applegate as Jen Harding on "Dead to Me" (Netflix)

Rachel Brosnahan as Miriam "Midge" Maisel on "The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel" (Amazon Prime Video)

Julia Louis-Dreyfus as Selina Meyer on "Veep" (HBO)

Natasha Lyonne as Nadia Vulvokov on "Russian Doll" (Netflix)

Catherine O'Hara as Moira Rose on "Schitt's Creek" (Pop TV)

Phoebe Waller-Bridge as Fleabag on "Fleabag" (Prime Video)

MY SAY Louis-Dreyfus, who will absolutely win her best Emmy in this category and absolutely deserves too. The competition is certainly considerable — so considerable that this is easily the most interesting and most competitive category of the 71st Emmys. Brosnahan just gets better (and better) in "Maisel." O'Hara is dazzling in "Schitt's" and if you watched "Schitt's," you'd know just how dazzling. Post-"Orange is the New Black" Lyonne had one of the standout performances anywhere on TV this year. And Waller-Bridge just might be the next Louis-Dreyfus. She's talented enough. 

But this is Louis-Dreyfus's to lose — which she won't.   

THE NOMINEES

"Chernobyl" (HBO)

"Escape at Dannemora" (Showtime)

"Fosse/Verdon" (FX)

"Sharp Objects" (HBO)

"When They See Us" (Netflix)

MY SAY This race is down to just two entrants, "Chernobyl" and "When They See Us." It's nearly impossible to call this a race, so let's go through the checklist. As I wrote in my review, Ava Du Vernay directed this series about the Central Park Five "with a clenched fist." Her rage was palpable, and the film made a powerful case in support of it. The performances were superb, while Jharrel Jerome — who played Korey Wise — is a cinch to best actor in a limited series. 

Then, "Chernobyl," and to repeat myself once again, creator Craig Mazin "has created something both beautiful and startling here. It's also a deeply human portrait of a people most Americans have been taught to dehumanize for far too long …" 

This was my favorite TV program of the last two years. How can I bet against myself? "Chernobyl" wins. 

THE NOMINEES

"Barry" (HBO)

"Fleabag" (Prime Video)

"The Good Place" (NBC)

"The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel" (Prime Video)

"Russian Doll" (Netflix)

"Schitt's Creek" (Pop TV)

Veep (HBO)

MY SAY The Comedy Emmy is a dear, calcified old thing — incapable of changing, refusing to change. Once voters settle on something, they settle again. and again. "Maisel" will probably win, and if it does, so be it. The second was better — much better — than the first season, so why not? I loved "Veep's" final lap, but suspect that voters would rather honor Julia Louis-Dreyfus than the show.

But let's not discount the surprise factor. If voters actually watched the Bill Hader-directed episode of "Barry" ("ronny/lily") they would have seen possibly the single funniest half hour of American television this year. "Fleabag" and "Doll" could pull off an upset too.  

The dear old Comedy Emmy may be about to shock us all.

Just don't be too shocked when it doesn't. 

THE NOMINEES

"Better Call Saul" (AMC)

"Bodyguard" (Netflix)

"Game of Thrones" (HBO)

"Killing Eve" (BBC America)

"Ozark" (Netflix)

"Pose" (FX)

"Succession" (HBO)

"This Is Us" (NBC)

MY SAY I've tried. Believe me, I have. Examined plausible scenarios, surprise outcomes, unexpected twists, and above all, that negative tide that swept through Westeros in the final season. The fan backlash was vicious — unfair and vicious — while no one seemed to be happy with the finale. Petitions were launched to rewrite the last season. The showrunners went into hiding. In fact, they just went on vacation — a deserved one. 

Nevertheless, there's no obvious way that "GoT" can lose this. The technical achievements alone should guarantee the fourth best drama Emmy, irrespective of what anyone thought of Daenerys' last-minute conversion or Bran's controversial ascension to the throne. None of that matters. "GoT's' final season — indeed all 8 seasons — represented TV's unassailable and indisputable conquest of pop culture. In terms of scope, ambition and spectacle, it became a series on equal footing with some of the great theatrical franchises. "GoT" will be rewarded for that. "GoT" deserves to be.