Emmys 2025: Our critic picks who should, will win

The 77th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards arrive Sunday (CBS/2, 8 p.m.) and you know what that means — our "winners" list is here to save you the trouble of actually watching.

I've restricted myself to the main categories, which means plenty of intriguing side races must be overlooked. But what's here is intriguing enough. Will Noah Wyle finally get that long-awaited Emmy? (Keri Russell? Or Kathy Bates, for crying out loud?)

And how about "Andor," a "Star Wars" masterpiece as well as sci-fi master class?

DRAMA

"Andor" (Disney +)

 "Paradise" (Hulu)

"Severance" (Apple TV +)

 "Slow Horses" (Apple TV+)

 "The Diplomat" (Netflix)

"The Last of Us" (HBO Max)

 "The Pitt" (HBO Max)

"The White Lotus" (HBO Max)

SHOULD WIN "Andor"

By every objective standard known to the craft of television, "Andor" is the easy winner because this second (and final) season of the prequel to the movie "Rogue One" was extraordinary. But the Emmy voters had a shot at celebrating an equally good first season, too — and passed.

WILL WIN "The Pitt"

Yes, "Severance" fans badly want this and may even get their wish, except "puzzle box" shows rarely win. And by moving to the hypercompetitive drama category, "Lotus" probably lowered its odds here after winning best anthology last year. But "The Pitt" — a crowd-pleaser with that crowd-pleasing lead performance (Noah Wyle's) — certainty feels like a winner.

COMEDY

 "Abbott Elementary" (ABC)

 "Hacks" (HBO Max)

 "Nobody Wants This" (Netflix)

"Only Murders in the Building" (Hulu)

 "Shrinking" (Apple TV+)

"The Bear" (Hulu)

 "The Studio" (Apple TV+)

"What We Do in the Shadows" (FX)

SHOULD WIN "The Studio"

"The Studio" surprised fans in many ways — foremost, a genuinely funny show-biz satire that didn't chew off the hand that feeds it. "Shrinking" also deserves a shot Sunday, thanks to a dramatic second season — not to mention the presence of classic TV actors like Ted McGinley and Wendie Malick, and the TV return of Brett Goldstein from "Ted Lasso." Meanwhile, "Abbott's" chances seem long, if only because Emmy voters have drifted away from big, sunny network sitcoms. Too bad for all of them that they're in the same category as "Hacks."

WILL WIN "Hacks"

Deborah Vance (Jean Smart) quits her No. 1 late night talk show over corporate meddling? The particulars are different from the "Late Show with Stephen Colbert" cancellation but maybe there should be an Emmy for prescience? "Hacks'" second consecutive win is a veritable lock.

ANTHOLOGY/LIMITED SERIES

 "Adolescence" (Netflix)

"Black Mirror" (Netflix)

"Dying for Sex" (Hulu)

 "Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story" (Netflix)

"The Penguin" (HBO Max)

SHOULD WIN "Adolescence"

The easiest call of the 77th Emmys. Maybe you squirmed through these hours, but who didn't admire those performances that made this so memorable — Stephen Graham, as Eddie Miller, the working-class dad who can't bring himself to accept what his son has done, and Christine Tremarco, as his wife, Manda, who forces herself to. (Not to mention Owen Cooper as Jamie Miller, the young boy accused of murder.) "Adolescence" is lucky because this wouldn't have been such an easy call last year, when "Baby Reindeer" won.

WILL WIN "Adolescence"

Just four episodes long, "Adolescence" left everything on the field — an intensive viewer experience that dragged us to a place we weren't sure we wanted to go. Was it too intensive? (Or put another way, did anyone out there actually enjoy "Adolescence"?) "Dying for Sex" — a shock to the system in its own obvious and subversive ways (a woman who explores her libido before her death from cancer) — could surprise the field Sunday, but had the same problem ("Monsters," too). That leaves "Black Mirror" — which rides into Sunday on the basis of one buzzworthy episode ("USS Callister: Into Infinity") — and "The Penguin," beneficiary of two outstanding lead performances (Colin Farrell, Cristin Milioti) but not much else. Through the process of elimination, "Adolescence" stands alone.

ACTOR/DRAMA

Sterling K. Brown ("Paradise")

Gary Oldman ("Slow Horses")

Pedro Pascal ("The Last of Us")

Adam Scott ("Severance")

Noah Wyle ("The Pitt")

SHOULD WIN Wyle

From the first minute of his worst-day-ever to the last, "The Pitt's" Dr. Michael "Robbie" Robinovitch held the screen because Wyle had so much practice playing him. But Wyle brought something deeper to this role — both a maturity and an acute sense of vulnerability. Robbie was the ER leader who crumpled in a corner, a broken man, then found the strength to carry on — just barely. Wyle turned in the best performance of his career and at long last, the Emmy-winning one.

WILL WIN Wyle

Over 11 seasons on "ER," Wyle got five nominations, all for supporting actor, but came up empty-handed every time. If there's any justice with the Emmys (there isn't) he'll finally win for lead.

ACTRESS/DRAMA 

Kathy Bates ("Matlock")

Sharon Horgan ("Bad Sisters")

Britt Lower ("Severance")

Bella Ramsey ("The Last of Us")

Keri Russell ("The Diplomat")

SHOULD WIN Lower

Will Bates win? An actress from a network drama hasn't in 11 years (since Julianna Margulies for "The Good Wife.") What about Horgan, so good in everything (although "Sisters" seems more like a comedy than drama). Then, there's first-time nominee Britt Lower, who had to play at least three major characters this second season — her "innie" and "outie" selves while also pretending to be an innie while she was actually and outie. Sounds impressive and baffling. Above all, this was a winning performance.

WILL WIN Russell

Sometimes the stars will and must align, and it seems only right that after five best actress nods — three for "The Americans" — those stars are about to do just that.

ACTOR/COMEDY 

Adam Brody, "Nobody Wants This"

Seth Rogen, "The Studio" 

Jason Segel, "Shrinking"

Martin Short, "Only Murders in the Building"

Jeremy Allen White, "The Bear"

SHOULD WIN Rogen

In "The Studio," Rogen surrounded himself with a whole lot of other talented, funny actors — Ike Barinholtz, Kathryn Hahn, Zoë Kravitz, Catherine O'Hara, Bryan Cranston — but somehow still managed to stand out. Not easy in a crowd like this. He's not the front-runner, but should be.

WILL WIN White

Emmy voters are reluctant to disavow past choices — White won in '23 and '24 — unless presented with overwhelming evidence that they should. White gave them nothing of the sort. While voters (and even fans) seem to have fallen out of love with "The Bear," Carmy Berzatto is as tortured as ever, and the guy who plays him is as admired as ever, too.

ACTRESS/COMEDY

Uzo Aduba, "The Residence"

Kristen Bell, "Nobody Wants This"

Quinta Brunson, "Abbott Elementary"

 Ayo Edebiri, "The Bear"

Jean Smart, "Hacks

SHOULD WIN Smart

Emmy voters got this right the past three times, and they'll get it right again. As the tortured late night star who decides against superstardom at the risk of losing her soul, Smart explored a whole new dimension of Deborah Vance — a surprising and at times moving one. At 73, Smart is finally getting the accolades she deserves, as one of TV's finest actors. Good for her.

WILL WIN Smart

The winner in '21, '22 and '24, Smart has owned this for most of the decade so far and no reason to assume she's about to relinquish that hold. There could be an upset (Bell) or two (Edebiri) in the making. Just don't expect it.