The Emmys: The race for outstanding drama

Most years, the outstanding drama category was considered the "Big Award," but in 2010, that distinction has been ceded to comedy.

This doesn't mean dramas are weaker, just less surprising. The shows that should be here are here. There is one amusing instance of inclusion - "True Blood" - and one possibly egregious omission ("House"). Otherwise, the usual suspects are accounted for.

"Breaking Bad," AMC - TV's best series may have to be content with the adoration of a few critics and fans, because an Emmy coronation still seems unlikely. Nevertheless, there were a handful of episodes last season that may - or certainly should have - blown away voters.

"Dexter," Showtime - There appears to be an unwritten rule that says a multiple-nominated show eventually will score a best drama win - "Law & Order," "24" - but no rule saying exactly when that will happen. Must "Dexter" (nominated in '08 and '09) wait another year to be anointed?

"The Good Wife," CBS - Bursting with mojo, "Wife" could be a favorite but for one curious problem - the New York production locale. There are fewer voting members in New York, although "The Sopranos" twice overcame that handicap. (No one, by the way, has compared "Wife" to "The Sopranos.")

"Lost," ABC - This entry feels sentimental. The academy seems to be saying that it can't properly honor one of the great series in TV history without conferring a final nomination for the final season. (There will likely be something celebratory on Sunday, too.) Good as season 6 was, the fifth season was better.

"Mad Men," AMC - Finally, the favorite. Without the slightest diminution of quality in the third season, there's nothing to suggest "Men" won't three-pete. Of course, the great thing about the Emmy Awards is that surprises do break out now and then.

"True Blood," HBO - Oh, come on! Seriously? "True Blood" has a slightly better chance than zero of winning this. While there is more to enjoy in "Blood" than admire, this field is simply too strong; plus, voters rarely reward sci-fi, and they're not about to warm up to blood porn, either.