Time will tell if Conan show survives

Good start, Conan.

And if you don't mind, we'd like to check back in six months to see if it holds up.

After a year of kvetching, touring and promoting, a talk show actually got airborne Monday, and the initial read appears good - or very good, if you accept TBS' hardly disinterested read, proclaiming the new show a "hit." About 4.2 million people watched, more than half of them younger viewers.

A success? Sure, but some perspective might temper the hyperbole a bit, too. Late-night launches tend to behave like hot air balloons - they rise fast and far, until the air starts to cool, which usually begins right around the second night.

David Letterman's "Late Show" began its maiden voyage with about 20 million viewers on the night of Aug. 30, 1993, but most of those drive-bys had evaporated by the end of the week - their curiosity about the endless and faintly ridiculous headlines about "the late night wars" satisfied. Jay Leno's balloon launch was even bigger and hotter: 25 million on the night of May 25, 1992. That, however, was almost half of the figure the previous Friday night, when someone named Johnny signed off.

Even "The Chevy Chase Show" on Fox got a good start (about 10 million or so viewers) on the night of Sept. 7, 1993, although only about 10 people remained - presumably his immediate family - when it was mercifully canceled a month later.

These days and nights, Leno and Letterman each scrap for about 4 million viewers a night - and they're happy to have 'em.

There's a simple moral to this story and it's as follows: The late-night TV racket can be (with apologies to Hunter S. Thompson) a cruel shallow money trench where good and sometimes bad hosts can die like dogs, or thrive and ultimately prevail. As O'Brien knows better than anyone, it takes more than one night for judgment to be rendered; in his last job, it took seven months.

But good strong start, Coco, and much better to start "strong" than "forgotten."