Oh, boy. Here we go again.

Ladies and gents . . . Ricky Gervais!

What, oh what will Ricky say about the glittering, preening, surgically reconstructed assemblage before him at the Beverly Hilton, as the telecast of the 69th annual Golden Globe Awards commences Sunday at 8 p.m. on NBC?

Surely there must be someone in that audience, a nominee, preferably, whose not-quite-worthy film has a big fat target on its back, as last year's "The Tourist" did. Someone out there must have had a DUI, or messy split, or public tirade or . . .

Oh, is that you, Alec Baldwin, at that table in back? Is Ashton Kutcher out there (and if so, who let him in?) Yoo-hoo, Demi!

Lindsay. . . . Nah. Too easy.

You get the idea. One thing -- no, make that two things are guaranteed as Gervais hosts his third straight Globes telecast: He will be amusing, and someone will be seething.

Host targets the host

Turning this increasingly prestigious awards ceremony into a roast, Gervais has unleashed the latent schadenfreude in all of us. In his 2011 host gig, which seemed calculated to be his last, he zapped Charlie Sheen, Robert Downey Jr., Mel Gibson, Tom Cruise (not by name) and Hugh Hefner. Yes, these were fairly easy targets, but the sharpest barbs were reserved for the host organization itself, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.

"One thing that cannot be bought is a Golden Globe. (Pause for a beat) Officially."

Or this: "Eva Longoria has the daunting task of introducing the president of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association]. That's nothing. I just had to help him off the toilet and pop his teeth in. Messy."

The HFPA -- which has spent years battling an image of doddering corruptibility -- was not amused. Gervais was not expected back, and spent days afterward defending his performance.

Then came the numbers -- 17 million viewers watched the broadcast, making this NBC's biggest entertainment hit of the year. NBC, and Dick Clark Productions, which produces the Globes, made certain the host would be back. The HFPA's 85 members put it to a vote and . . . well, Gervais is now the Johnny Carson of the Golden Globes, an awards telecast that never before even had a host. (Carson hosted five Oscar telecasts through the '70s; we'll see if Gervais gets to that number.)

In a phone interview last week, Dr. Aida Takla O'Reilly, who was elected president of the HFPA in June, said of Gervais: "I trust his instincts, and I trust he is going to do the right thing. We can't gag him because he's not funny anymore."

To a certain extent, the danger for the HFPA is image; Egyptian-born O'Reilly, an HFPA member since 1956, is charged with maintaining the prestige of the Globes, which isn't the easiest of tasks with Gervais in the building.

A sense of humor

Of his HFPA barbs, O'Reilly said she met with Gervais in Paris and "found him to be a charming, cordial and sensitive person, and not the comedian who wants to be funny all the time. He has a sense of humor that I appreciated. But I would like the telecast to have sophistication, and I don't want it to become a rowdy comedy hour. I think he will bring that sentiment and still be funny. I hope so."

She added: "I think the Golden Globes are bigger than Ricky, to be honest with you. If people want to laugh, fine, and if they want to come back at him, they should. But this is a celebration honoring the people in the industry and not just the people at the tables. That's the purpose, and he can't take that away from anyone. He has common sense, and he knows his limits instinctively. Ricky is going to be Ricky, but he'll be respectful of the Golden Globes."

Well . . . what exactly does Gervais have to say about all this? He's done exactly one interview so far (a conference call with reporters was canceled a couple of weeks ago) with Matt Lauer, who he told that no one at the HFPA or NBC will have control over what he says.

"I don't know what I did wrong, really . What did I say that was untrue? I made a joke suggesting that Charlie Sheen might like a night out. I said that Robert Downey Jr. spent some time in clinics. And he did. I'm not judging him by that; it's a joke.

"You eventually come to the conclusion that your reputation is what strangers think of you, but your character is who you really are. And, again, it just makes you bulletproof. You know? What do I care if someone likes what I do or not? I just don't, anymore. If you get your own way, if you get final edit, and you enjoy what you're doing, and things turn out exactly as you wanted 'em, what -- what else is there?"

He added: "No one believes me now, but this will be the last time. The last time for a while, at least."


Our critic's TV picks

BY VERNE GAY, verne.gay@newsday.com

BEST SERIES -- DRAMA

"American Horror Story"

"Boardwalk Empire"

"Boss"

"Game of Thrones"

"Homeland"

SHOULD WIN "Game of Thrones." Rich, beautifully conceived, great acting, terrific storytelling. Oh, well. There's always the Emmys.

WILL WIN "Homeland." Not a bad choice, either. A great pilot and excellent finale should sell this one.

BEST SERIES -- COMEDY OR MUSICAL

"Enlightened"

"Episodes"

"Glee"

"Modern Family"

"New Girl"

SHOULD WIN "Modern Family." Come on, do you even need to ask? But the HFPA members -- for reasons only they and their psychiatrists understand -- have passed over this before.

WILL WIN "New Girl." Because the HFPA doesn't want to collectively embarrass itself by voting for "Glee" a third time in a row.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TV SERIES -- DRAMA

Steve Buscemi, "Boardwalk Empire"

Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad"

Kelsey Grammer, "Boss"

Jeremy Irons, "The Borgias"

Damian Lewis, "Homeland"

SHOULD WIN Cranston. As brilliant as ever in the fifth season, but he's won before (not a lot of repeats in this category), and the last season didn't have the buzz of prior ones.

WILL WIN Grammer. Call this a crazy hunch only because Irons is probably a better bet, given the HFPA's fondness for multinational productions, like "The Borgias," and of prestige actors. But there was something about Grammer's crazed -- and hypnotic -- performance.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TV SERIES -- DRAMA

Claire Danes, "Homeland"

Mireille Enos, "The Killing"

Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife"

Madeleine Stowe, "Revenge"

Callie Thorne, "Necessary Roughness"

SHOULD WIN Danes. And she'll score the Emmy, too.

WILL WIN Danes. This was just a dominating performance, and it feels even more dominating -- no disrespect intended -- when compared to a couple of these other surprise nominees.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TV SERIES -- MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock"

David Duchovny, "Californication"

Johnny Galecki, "The Big Bang Theory"

Thomas Jane, "Hung"

Matt LeBlanc, "Episodes"

SHOULD WIN LeBlanc. HFPA voters very much like this kind of louche, morally comprised character.

WILL WIN Jane. Repeat after me, dear reader -- the Globes are not the Emmys . . . the Globes are not the Emmys. Members like to surprise in this category, and they don't like to repeat. Plus, twice nominated Jane is due as far as they're concerned.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TV SERIES -- MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Laura Dern, "Enlightened"

Zooey Deschanel, "New Girl"

Tina Fey, "30 Rock"

Laura Linney, "The Big C"

Amy Poehler, "Parks and Recreation"

SHOULD WIN Poehler. And don't even get me started on why "Parks and Rec" wasn't nominated in the comedy category.

WILL WIN Dern. That's right. You heard it here first. HFPA members love to distraction characters like Dern's Amy Jellicoe, and the emotional entanglements that entangle them.


Where to watch the Golden Globes

COUNTDOWN TO THE RED CARPET: THE 2012 GOLDEN GLOBE AWARDS (5 p.m. Sunday, E!) -- Giuliana Rancic, George Kotsiopoulos, Kelly Osbourne, Ross Mathews and Kristina Guerrero offer a first look at the evening's fashion parade and interviews with early celebrity arrivals.

LIVE FROM THE RED CARPET: THE 2012 GOLDEN GLOBE AWARDS (6 p.m. Sunday, E!) -- Ryan Seacrest, Rancic, Mathews and Osbourne welcome the stars on the red carpet at the 2012 Golden Globe Awards.

2012 GOLDEN GLOBES ARRIVAL SPECIAL (7 p.m. Sunday, NBC/4) -- Carson Daly and Natalie Morales interview celebs on the red carpet.

GOLDEN GLOBE AWARDS (8 p.m. Sunday, NBC/4) -- Ricky Gervais hosts the 69th annual gala from the Beverly Hills Hilton

E! AFTER PARTY: THE 2012 GOLDEN GLOBE AWARDS (11 p.m. Sunday, E!) -- Rancic, Mathews and Jason Kennedy discuss the highlights from the night.

SUBSCRIBE

Unlimited Digital AccessOnly 25¢for 6 months

ACT NOWSALE ENDS SOON | CANCEL ANYTIME