Reports: Aging plants, high demand may threaten NYS electricity reliability

Aging power plants and a projected "rapid growth" in electric usage over the next five to 10 years could stress the region’s power grids to their limits and pose challenges to electric system reliability, according to two new reports.

Those factors combined with public policies limiting supply resources into the region are contributing to electric "reliability violations" on Long Island and New York City beginning next summer, according to the New York Independent System Operator, the nonprofit corporation that manages state grids and wholesale power markets.

"New York’s generation fleet is among the oldest in the country, and as these generators age, they are experiencing more frequent and longer outages," according to a NYISO short-term assessment report released Tuesday.

"The violations are driven by generator deactivations, increasing consumer demand and transmission limitations," according to the report for the third quarter, which studies reliability over a five-year period, from summer of 2025 to summer of 2030.

A second report, which examines ways to keep the grid reliable over a 10-year period from 2025 through 2034, warns that the state’s electric system "faces an era of profound reliability challenges" driven by the same factors: aging of the existing power generation fleet, the "rapid growth" of large electric load users such as data centers and computer chip manufacturing, and the "increasing difficulty of developing new supply resources due to public policies, supply-chain constraints and rising costs for equipment."

As Newsday has reported, Long Island’s plan for future electric supply led by planned offshore wind arrays has been profoundly altered by the Trump administration’s opposition to green energy sources, chiefly wind and solar power. Just two years ago, the Long Island Power Authority and grid manager PSEG released a report that anticipated offshore wind would largely replace an aging fleet of fossil-fuel-based power plants, which state law mandates must be retired by 2040.

But Long Island, home to the first federally sited offshore wind farm in South Fork Wind, has only one other offshore wind-array scheduled to come online in the next five years: Sunrise Wind, which is to deliver its 924 megawatts of power to Long Island grid by 2027. A second planned array called Empire Wind 2 has been canceled, and a state bid for more wind farms in the New York Bight has yet to be awarded — months behind schedule.

LIPA, in a statement, said it "remains confident in the strength and reliability of our electric system. We’re planning for a grid of the future — one that’s transforming faster than ever — and executing long-term strategies that strengthen and modernize the transmission and distribution system, integrate renewable energy, and maintain flexible, local resources to ensure reliable power."

LIPA this summer noted that it had nearly 1,000 megawatts of excess power beyond anticipated summer energy needs, a cushion that helps address some of the NYISO's concerns, which include the planned retirement of smaller plants in Far Rockaway and Bethpage, amounting to some 180 megawatts.

But LIPA has already indicated that it will likely delay planned retirements of fossil fuel plants, and it is banking on a new high-voltage power transmission project to bolster Long Island reliability. The latter, known as Propel NY Energy, is scheduled to be in service by mid 2030. 

"Having Propel come in on time and as it's configured is important to us," said Gary Stephenson, LIPA's vice president of power supply. Even if Propel is delayed, he added, "We can extend our existing contracts [for other power sources] longer, if we need to."

National Grid NY president Sally Librera, in a statement said National Grid is "modernizing and growing our upstate transmission grid to unlock and move more electricity," while supporting a new gas line proposal called the Northeast Supply Enhancement project "that will bolster reliability for essential energy needs in New York City and Long Island." 

Some environmental groups strongly oppose the NESE pipeline plan, currently under review by the state, while many residents of Glen Head and surrounding areas oppose the Propel project since miles of high-voltage cables would run under residential streets. 

The NYISO’s 2025-2034 Comprehensive Reliability Plan notes that the electric system "needs resources that can perform reliably during period of high net load, low intermittent output and extreme weather." The power sources "must be dispatchable, flexible and capable of operating during extended periods of extreme weather and high demand."

Gov. Kathy Hochul's state grid power plan has opened the door to maintaining some natural gas power plants and once-rejected gas pipelines, as well as new nuclear power plants, in an all-of-the-above approach to power that addresses Trump-based challenges to an all green energy grid.

Hochul’s office on Tuesday took note of the NYISO findings, saying they come as "no surprise."

Hochul spokesman Ken Lovett, in an email, said the governor "has been repeatedly warning of the need for more energy, particularly in light of the economic and political realities of 2025, including the Trump administration’s all-out war on clean energy projects."

The reliability report notes that while renewable generation such as solar and wind and battery storage are "essential components of the future grid, they are not sufficient on their own to meet all reliability needs." The system needs firm electric resources that can operate "independently of whether conditions and provide sustained output when needed."

The report discusses "many plausible futures" that show "significant reliability shortfalls within the next 10 years. ... If these risks materialize without timely action the consequences could extend beyond operational challenges to widespread impacts on public safety, property and economic activity."

Empire Wind 1, which is being built off Long Island’s coast and was set to bring its energy to the New York City grid by next year’s end, was set back last week by the announcement that a nearly finished construction vessel to be used for the project was canceled by Maersk Offshore Wind. Empire was briefly shut down by the Trump administration in April.

"We have been informed by Maersk of an issue concerning its contract with Seatrium related to the wind turbine installation vessel originally contracted by Empire Offshore Wind for use in 2026," Equinor said in a statement Monday. "We are currently assessing the implications of this issue and evaluating available options."

Sunrise Wind has continued construction, but is facing other financial and other challenges, Newsday has reported. Its developer, Orsted of Denmark, this month reported layoffs amid continuing financial woes tied to its offshore wind portfolio.

Long Island’s power plants, meanwhile, are coming up for contract renewal with owner National Grid by 2028, and had faced the prospect of gradual planned retirements through the decade. But as U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in a visit to the Northport Power Station last month, plants such Northport will be needed amid growing power demand — Northport had its highest usage day ever during a late-June heat wave — and Wright suggested federal funds freed up from canceled green energy projects could be used to fund needed overhauls of old plants.

By Mark Harrington

mark.harrington@newsday.comMHarringtonNews

Mark Harrington, a Newsday reporter since 1999, covers energy, wineries, Indian affairs and fisheries.