Temperatures exceeding limit means extreme weather, flooding, more ticks for Long Island, scientists warn

A United Nations report released Wednesday that acknowledges global temperatures will warm beyond a key climate threshold means Long Island will face more extreme weather, sea level rise, chronic flooding and more ticks, according to climate scientists and advocates.

The United Nations Environmental Programme's report reached some grim conclusions: The world has already lost the chance to stave off a 1.5 degree Celsius (about 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) increase in warming that was targeted at the Paris Accords of 2015. The use of coal, oil and gas has led to an increase in temperature that is already warming the oceans, melting glaciers and causing other severe damage to the world environment.

"This summer’s scorching heat, raging wildfires and deadly floods are a warning of what lies ahead. We must make the overshoot above 1.5 degrees as small and short as possible," U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement.

Despite experts saying there's no way to limit warming to 1.5 degrees, U.N. officials long maintained the 1.5-degree window was still open. Wednesday's report finally admitted that the world will cross the 1.5-degree threshold "in the next few years," and also envisions a new strategy to get back below the limit by ending fossil fuel use and developing a way to suck industries' carbon dioxide out of the air.

Consequences without action

Jon Binder, executive director of the Model Climate Laws Initiative at Environmental Advocates of New York, said Long Island will feel the effects.

"Every fraction of a degree from here on out will be measured in flooded basements, eroded shorelines, and saltwater intrusion into the aquifers that supply drinking water across Nassau and Suffolk counties," he told Newsday in an email.

He noted state and local governments can reduce emissions on their own, even if the federal government has backed off its support for such initiatives.

Jase Bernhardt, a professor of atmosphere science at Hofstra University, said global warming is a key reason why Long Island has an active tick population and high rates of tick-borne diseases.

"The longer frost-free season, the longer growing season, the shorter winter allows ticks to survive better and thrive more," he said.

He added residents in the Northeast are seeing temperatures remain high after sunset.

"The lowest temperatures seem to be increasing more quickly than the high temperatures, which is really important during heatwaves, because people with limited air conditioning cannot cool off and that’s when it can get really dangerous," Bernhardt said.

More than 70 years ago, Jane Fasullo’s family purchased waterfront property in East Hampton.

Almost half of that property now remains covered even during low tide — a situation she said was at least partly due to global warming that has increased water temperature and changed the ecology of Long Island.

"I’m seeing it in other places," said Fasullo, chair of the Sierra Club's Long Island Group. "But it’s really direct here. Sand dunes used to be above water all the time. Now every time we have a flood tide with a high moon, they are underwater."

State policy debate

Liz Moran, New York policy advocate for the nonprofit Earthjustice, said the report is another reminder of why states like New York need to take further action to address climate change and also demonstrated why Gov. Kathy Hochul’s decision to rollback parts of the state’s landmark 2019 climate law was ill-timed.

Moran noted many Long Island residents rely on home heating oil. Prices for that fuel have skyrocketed in recent months and in August the price for a gallon of heating oil on Long Island was up 45% compared with the same time last year.

"What New York should really be prioritizing is shifting those customers away off of very dirty, highly polluting and extremely expensive delivered fuels to electrification, which is better for the environment and will save those customers money," she said.

But Hochul's office defended her record on climate change.

"Governor Hochul remains committed to building on the state's robust and nation-leading record of climate, environmental and clean energy successes" said Ken Lovett, senior communications adviser on energy and environment.

He said the state has committed $88.7 billion to clean energy projects since 2021 and invested $3 billion in climate-resilient infrastructure.

Those figures include nearly $2 billion for the Fire Island to Montauk Point coastal resilience project along with additional funding for U.S. Army Corps of Engineers projects in East Rockaway and Long Beach, which are vulnerable to flooding and severe weather, he said.

With AP