Experts: Absence of hurricanes makes LIers complacent

It's been 25 years since Long Island was hammered by a hurricane, so weather experts say the majority of the population may not know what to do if one comes calling.

"It's been a long time since a major hurricane has struck," said Weather Channel hurricane specialist Rick Knabb, who recently listed the metropolitan area as the second most vulnerable in the country and overdue for a major hit.

"The last time there was a really close call was Bob in 1991. A majority of the residents have never been through a hurricane, so they really have no idea what can happen. People need to have some kind of idea what they're going to do, and have supplies to live through the aftermath."

Long Island's emergency preparedness officials share Knabb's fears and have been beefing up planning and communications to warn about impending storms and to encourage residents to be ready.

It's difficult to get people to realize the dangers of hurricanes when the region escapes damage year after year, Suffolk fire rescue Commissioner Joe Williams said. After Katrina hit the Gulf Coast and Florida in 2005 - the last time a hurricane came ashore on the Eastern Seaboard - he said county residents became concerned and updated their plans. "But people are starting to slack off again."

Above-average season

Forecasters said this is not the year to be blasé. The National Weather Service is predicting an above-average season, with up to 12 hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico.

"The New York City-Long Island area is vulnerable to hurricanes, but it doesn't happen very often and it hasn't happened in a while," Knabb said. "In the 1950s and up through Donna in 1960 there were a lot of major hurricanes going up the East Coast."

He rated the New York metropolitan area as second only to Miami in vulnerability because of the density of population and buildings near the coast, making it susceptible to wind and surge damage, as well as the difficulty of evacuating people.

To ease the movement of people from coastal areas, last year Nassau County checked its evacuation routes and replaced all of the emergency signs, said James Callahan, the commissioner of emergency management.

Improved communication

Joe Williams, his Suffolk counterpart, said his county has installed a mass notification system called "Code Red" so residents can register their phone numbers or e-mail addresses if they want to be notified about emergencies.

The Long Island Power Authority, beset by large-scale outages during major storms this year, has also changed procedures to improve communications with customers.

Residents' experience with hurricanes varies with age. Some have witnessed not only Bob in 1991, Gloria in 1985 and Donna in 1960, but also Carol and Edna in 1954. Going back further, there was the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944 and, most infamously, the "Long Island Express" of 1938.

Knabb noted that in all of these storms, western Long Island dodged a major disaster by being on the comparatively weaker side of the storm.

But he added that is not always the case. A Category 1 hurricane made landfall in New Jersey in 1903 and in 1893, the center of a Category 1 storm came onshore nearby between Coney Island and Jamaica Bay.

The shape of the coastline can point storms right at the metropolitan area, the forecasters said. And with Long Island jutting into the Atlantic, it makes a great target.

"Coastlines have built up tremendously over the last several decades so every time a hurricane threatens, many, many more people are now in harm's way," said Gerry Bell, lead hurricane forecaster for the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center.

"According to the National Weather Service," Callahan said, "every 17 years we should be hit by a Category 1 hurricane and every 39 years we should be hit by a Category 2 hurricane, and every 68 years in Nassau County - and 70 years in Suffolk County - we should be hit by a Category 3 storm. The last hurricane we had in Nassau was 1985, Hurricane Gloria, so we are overdue for a Category 1. The last Category 3 we had was in 1938 and the last Category 2 was before that. So we are overdue for Category 1, 2 and 3 storms."

With Mark Harrington

What Long Island officials are doing to prepare for a hurricane

LIPA Long Island Power Authority has set up a new phone system that makes automated calls to affected customers to let them know how soon service will be restored. Customers can also enter phone numbers into an automated system for LIPA to call back with information. LIPA also upgraded its website to provide more specific information about outages and to allow customers to report problems.

SUFFOLK COUNTY Installed a mass notification system, "Code Red," so residents can go to the county website and register their phone numbers or e-mail addresses so they can notified about emergencies. This will backup the existing "Reverse 911" system that allows the county to communicate with all phone numbers. The county also is installing a backup radio system in Coram to supplement the main system in Yaphank.

ISLIP Has obtained a mobile command vehicle in case a shoreline area loses communication with emergency service agencies.

Hempstead, Southampton, Huntington and other towns have mailed out or updated their hurricane preparedness guides for residents.