More active hurricane season predicted

The outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season just got a little scarier.

Federal scientists Thursday predicted 14 to 19 named tropical storms will form -- with as many as five turning into hurricanes that could threaten the eastern coastline.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's previous forecast, issued in May, called for slightly fewer storms and hurricanes. The hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, peaking from August through October.

NOAA now predicts that 7 to 10 named tropical storms this season will develop into hurricanes, with about half of those becoming major, or Category 3, hurricanes packing winds of 111 mph or more.

The agency cautioned that its forecast should be viewed as a "general guide" to the hurricane season."NOAA does not make seasonal landfall predictions," said Gerry Bell, the agency's lead hurricane forecaster.

The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University, however, estimates there is a 1.9 percent chance of a named storm making landfall in Nassau this season and an 8.9 percent chance of a landfall in Suffolk.

The research group estimated the chance of a hurricane striking Nassau at 1.1 percent, with Suffolk slightly more at risk at 5.3 percent.

"Odds are New York State will not be hit this year," said William Gray, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the school.

The last hurricane to make landfall in the United States was Ike in 2008. Gloria, in 1985, was the last to make landfall on Long Island, but the Island took a pounding six years later from Bob, which skirted Montauk, according to David Stark, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Upton.

NOAA cited several reasons for this year's active hurricane season, including "exceptionally warm" ocean water, reduced vertical wind shear and lower air pressure across the tropical Atlantic.

NOAA says the average Atlantic hurricane season has 11 named storms, which become named storms after developing winds of at least 39 mph. Six of those, on average, have winds reaching 74 mph and are upgraded to hurricanes, and two become major hurricanes. NOAA had predicted 14 hurricanes for the 2010 season, and there were 12, said its website.

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