New wind farm plan has minimal cost to ratepayers

A two-phase wind farm off the South Shore could cost its partners $2.5 billion to $6 billion and start producing power by 2016, according to findings in a confidential study presented to utility officials.

The projected higher cost, which tops a previous estimate of $4 billion, is nevertheless expected to result in a minimal monthly bill increase for ratepayers of between $1.22 to $1.66.

"Economic assessment shows costs are reasonable compared to alternatives," according to a draft of the findings shown to Newsday.

The study says construction during the first phase of the project will create $451 million in regional revenue through the creation of 2,300 jobs paying $168 million a year, and another $5.4 million in operation and maintenance jobs.

One significant difference from an earlier Long Island Power Authority proposal off Jones Beach is that three utilities - LIPA, the New York Power Authority and Con Edison - are expected to share costs and the energy produced.

The project envisions placing up to 234 turbines 13 to 15 miles from the coast of Long Island, from the Rockaways to the Nassau-Suffolk border. The distance means the turbines will be in water depths of 60 to 130 feet - one reason for the high cost and technical complications. While the stated capacity of the project is 350 to 700 megawatts, wind fluctuations mean that it will only produce a little more than a third of those amounts, experts say.

Michael Deering, vice president of environmental affairs at LIPA, cautioned that the finds don't take into account anticipated government incentives that could reduce costs. "They're very much exploratory numbers," Deering said of costs presented to executives last month. "I don't want to speculate on what the actual cost could be."

The study says the cost per kilowatt hour for energy from the project will be between 25.9-35.2 cents a kilowatt hour - about double the estimated cost of the proposed Cape Wind project in Massachusetts, and just below a Rhode Island project proposed for the waters around Block Island.

The partners can expect the most robust opposition from fishermen, the study says, but it finds many other perceived obstacles surmountable.

"Any wind farm plan that displaces fishermen from their traditional fishing grounds . . . is an unacceptable plan for Long Island and its fishing communities," said Bonnie Brady, director of the Long Island Commercial Fishing Association.

The project can be interconnected to LIPA and Con Ed systems, with upgrades to the power grid costing $800 million. It will require the installation of more than one 138-kilovolt cable at least 13 miles long. Shipping lanes are not considered an impediment, the study says. Though the project is located near Kennedy Airport, the only major aviation issue identified is concern about radar systems.

The 450-foot-tall turbines are expected to be spaced around one-half to one mile apart, the study says.

While environmental studies are yet to be completed, the report found "no fatal flaws at this stage" that would impact birds. It found that "some impacts to local ecological resources are possible," though computer modeling didn't find impacts that would render the project undoable.

The turbines won't be audible from the land and barely visible, the study says.

The study found the offshore project to be only slightly more expensive than land-based wind projects (35.2 cents vs. 32.3 cents), and considerably less expensive than rooftop and large-scale solar energy. Explanations for those findings weren't provided.

Richard Kessel, NYPA chief executive, declined to comment specifically on the study, but said: "I continue to think an offshore wind project in the Atlantic Ocean off Long Island and the Rockaways is feasible."

At the same time, he said, "I think any project has to be smaller and closer [to shore] to make economic sense." Kessel said he plans to speak to Gov.-elect Andrew Cuomo about a smaller project.

Neal Lewis, a LIPA trustee and wind-farm proponent as director of the Sustainability Institute at Molloy College, said he believes the high costs of this project could be offset by making it larger.

"These are big numbers," he said of the costs. "But they're not out of sync with things that government has done in the past," including dam projects valued at billions by current standards. "I think it's a reasonable thing," he said. "But obviously nothing's going forward unless the [new] governor wants to do it."

Michael Clendenin, spokesman for Con Edison, also stressed the cost estimates were "just that."

"At this stage, cost is a factor, certainly," he said, "but renewable projects are always more expensive," and provide environmental benefits. Actual costs won't be known, he said, until formal bidding begins, perhaps next year.