Experts: new Donald Trump charges unlikely to dent front-runner status
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally last week in Erie, Pa. Credit: AP/Sue Ogrocki
WASHINGTON — The new federal indictment of former President Donald Trump likely will not change his front-runner status in the GOP presidential primaries, but a dip in his small-dollar campaign donations and the results of recent polls suggest some erosion in his support since earlier criminal indictments, political analysts said Wednesday.
A Manhattan grand jury indicted Trump in March on charges he sought to conceal hush-money payments to a porn actor. In June, Trump was indicted on federal charges he mishandled classified documents after leaving office. He has pleaded not guilty in both cases.
Nonetheless, Trump holds an average 36-point lead in the polls, according to an analysis by the website Real Clear Politics of national polls released between July 12 and July 30.
Dan Schnur, a professor of political communication at the University of Southern California, said other Republican candidates will have difficulty closing the polling gap.
But Schnur, who served as Republican John McCain’s national communications director in the 2000 presidential campaign, noted a New York Times/Siena College poll this week that found 37% of likely GOP primary voters would back Trump, 37% were “persuadable” and open to considering another candidate and 25% who were not open to voting for him.
“That middle 37% is key, that middle third of the Republicans who are persuadable is going to be critically important going forward,” Schnur said. “If they stick with Trump, even through this indictment, then he will be almost impossible to beat. But if they begin to stray, then one of his challengers might have a chance.”
An Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll released June 29 after Trump’s second indictment showed signs of softening GOP support. The poll of 1,220 adults found 60% of Republicans viewed Trump favorably — an 8-point decline from his approval rating in April. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9%.
Schnur also said small-dollar donations to the Trump campaign in coming months could be a gauge of where he stands among grassroots Republicans.
“If there’s any falloff of small donors, it could signal a lower level of enthusiasm for him with his base,” Schnur said.
An analysis by the news site Politico published Tuesday found a drop-off in small donations to Trump’s campaign between his indictment in the hush-money case and the federal indictment in the documents case in June.
The Politico story, citing data from the GOP fundraising platform WinRed that was reported to the Federal Election Commission, noted Trump raised a total of $4 million from 80,000 donors on April 4, the day of his arraignment in the hush-money case, compared with $1.3 million from 35,000 donors on June 13, the day he was arraigned in the documents case.
Former Rep. Pete King (R-Seaford) said Trump has managed to remain the GOP front-runner because a large swath of Republican voters view the various probes as politically motivated.
King said he didn't expect the new indictment to move the needle much. But he said the swirl of cases could lead to “Trump fatigue” among some Republicans.
King noted conversations with Long Island Republicans who have told him they were considering GOP candidates such as U.S. Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley.
“What Trump has to worry about is the fatigue factor,” King said. “Republicans have a good view of the Trump administration … but this indictment could remind them of the constant friction, the constant tension, the constant fighting that was going on during his administration.”
Nassau GOP Chairman Joseph Cairo downplayed the effects of the Trump indictments. Cairo referred to cases involving President Joe Biden’s son Hunter, whom federal prosecutors have charged with two misdemeanor counts of not paying taxes on income generated in 2017 and 2018, and a felony count of possessing a firearm as a drug user in 2018. Hunter Biden has pleaded not guilty to the charges.
“Nassau Republicans have a unique identity, which has been very well received by voters," Cairo said in a statement. "Local Democrats on the other hand are frantically trying to distance themselves from the scandals of the President and his son.”
But Jay Jacobs, chairman of the state and Nassau County Democratic committees, argued, "as trials begin, and testimony is heard, that will be on the news day in and day out, and I think there comes a point … [when] moderate Republicans, and of course the independent voters, they're going to look at all of that … "
With Scott Eidler
WASHINGTON — The new federal indictment of former President Donald Trump likely will not change his front-runner status in the GOP presidential primaries, but a dip in his small-dollar campaign donations and the results of recent polls suggest some erosion in his support since earlier criminal indictments, political analysts said Wednesday.
A Manhattan grand jury indicted Trump in March on charges he sought to conceal hush-money payments to a porn actor. In June, Trump was indicted on federal charges he mishandled classified documents after leaving office. He has pleaded not guilty in both cases.
Nonetheless, Trump holds an average 36-point lead in the polls, according to an analysis by the website Real Clear Politics of national polls released between July 12 and July 30.
Dan Schnur, a professor of political communication at the University of Southern California, said other Republican candidates will have difficulty closing the polling gap.
But Schnur, who served as Republican John McCain’s national communications director in the 2000 presidential campaign, noted a New York Times/Siena College poll this week that found 37% of likely GOP primary voters would back Trump, 37% were “persuadable” and open to considering another candidate and 25% who were not open to voting for him.
“That middle 37% is key, that middle third of the Republicans who are persuadable is going to be critically important going forward,” Schnur said. “If they stick with Trump, even through this indictment, then he will be almost impossible to beat. But if they begin to stray, then one of his challengers might have a chance.”
An Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll released June 29 after Trump’s second indictment showed signs of softening GOP support. The poll of 1,220 adults found 60% of Republicans viewed Trump favorably — an 8-point decline from his approval rating in April. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9%.
Schnur also said small-dollar donations to the Trump campaign in coming months could be a gauge of where he stands among grassroots Republicans.
“If there’s any falloff of small donors, it could signal a lower level of enthusiasm for him with his base,” Schnur said.
An analysis by the news site Politico published Tuesday found a drop-off in small donations to Trump’s campaign between his indictment in the hush-money case and the federal indictment in the documents case in June.
The Politico story, citing data from the GOP fundraising platform WinRed that was reported to the Federal Election Commission, noted Trump raised a total of $4 million from 80,000 donors on April 4, the day of his arraignment in the hush-money case, compared with $1.3 million from 35,000 donors on June 13, the day he was arraigned in the documents case.
Former Rep. Pete King (R-Seaford) said Trump has managed to remain the GOP front-runner because a large swath of Republican voters view the various probes as politically motivated.
King said he didn't expect the new indictment to move the needle much. But he said the swirl of cases could lead to “Trump fatigue” among some Republicans.
King noted conversations with Long Island Republicans who have told him they were considering GOP candidates such as U.S. Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley.
“What Trump has to worry about is the fatigue factor,” King said. “Republicans have a good view of the Trump administration … but this indictment could remind them of the constant friction, the constant tension, the constant fighting that was going on during his administration.”
Nassau GOP Chairman Joseph Cairo downplayed the effects of the Trump indictments. Cairo referred to cases involving President Joe Biden’s son Hunter, whom federal prosecutors have charged with two misdemeanor counts of not paying taxes on income generated in 2017 and 2018, and a felony count of possessing a firearm as a drug user in 2018. Hunter Biden has pleaded not guilty to the charges.
“Nassau Republicans have a unique identity, which has been very well received by voters," Cairo said in a statement. "Local Democrats on the other hand are frantically trying to distance themselves from the scandals of the President and his son.”
But Jay Jacobs, chairman of the state and Nassau County Democratic committees, argued, "as trials begin, and testimony is heard, that will be on the news day in and day out, and I think there comes a point … [when] moderate Republicans, and of course the independent voters, they're going to look at all of that … "
With Scott Eidler
Laura Figueroa Hernandez is the White House correspondent and previously covered New York City politics and government. She joined Newsday in 2012 after covering state and local politics for The Miami Herald.
