Experts debate impact of suburban vote

A panel of political experts convened at Hofstra University yesterday to explore the impact of the suburban vote on this year's midterm election, but agreed on little other than the conventional wisdom that the race of Rep. Tim Bishop (D-Southampton) was one of the bellwether contests to watch.

"There are two seats I would keep my eye on for how bad this can be for Democrats, both of them suburban seats," said panelist Glenn Thrush, the White House reporter for Politico.com. "If Gerry Connolly loses [in Virginia], we know it's going to be terrible night for Democrats. It will be a worse night for Democrats - in conclusion - if Tim Bishop . . . loses."

Professor Robert Lang of Brookings Mountain West at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, said that while the suburban vote was important, it was difficult to quantify because the U.S. Census does not define what a suburb is. Scottsdale, Ariz., for example, is defined as a city, but for all practical purposes it is a suburb, Lang said.

Lawrence Levy, head of Hofstra's National Center for Suburban Studies, said the suburban vote will play a key role in November. "How the suburbs go . . . pretty much decides who controls the White House and Congress," Levy said.

Republican strategist Ed Rollins, arriving late after being stuck in suburban traffic on the Long Island Expressway, agreed with former Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean that the tea party movement would have some impact this year.

Rollins said voters "desperately want change," but he did not think that would result in a permanent realignment of voting patters in the country.

Dean said he approved of the tea party in general.

"I really think political activism is important. I don't agree with much of their platform, but I think it's great that they reach out and take their own responsibility for their own politicians," Dean said.