Lee Zeldin, Perry Gershon race tests Donald Trump's popularity

The race between Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin and Democratic businessman Perry Gershon will test the popularity of President Donald Trump and the strength of the opposition to him in the traditional swing Suffolk County district that went strongly for Republicans two years ago.

The national political scene has been front-and-center for many voters, the 1st Congressional District candidates say, even as each also runs on his own agenda in hopes of winning over undecided voters by Election Day, Nov. 6.

"Trump is the 800-pound gorilla in the room," Gershon, 56 of East Hampton, said. "But Lee Zeldin is sufficiently aligned and tied to Donald Trump that I don’t need to talk much about Donald Trump. Trump is part of my story of what motivated me to be politically active, but I’m running against Lee Zeldin."

Zeldin, 38 of Shirley, said Trump is more popular in the district today than he was in 2016, when he won in the 1st by 12 percentage points

"A lot of voters are happy with the direction of the country, they're seeing the economy growing, and they want more wins come January," Zeldin, who is seeking a third term, said in an interview. "They don’t want to see a gridlocked Washington where Congress’ purpose is to oppose, impeach, resist and obstruct anything and everything." 

Gershon, he said, "hasn’t been shy in stating that his purpose for running is to join the resistance and help the resistance."

Zeldin pointed to his legislative successes such as a bill to expand adult day care for disabled veterans. Zeldin also cited his role in securing funding for an emergency dredging project at the Moriches Inlet, Long Island Sound environmental programs and local bridge repairs.

Gershon said, if elected, he'd push for a major bipartisan infrastructure bill, such as one Trump had campaigned on, to improve highways and mass transit in the 1st District. 

Gershon also said he backs "Medicare-for-all" to provide universal health care coverage, and wants stricter gun control laws after mass shootings.

But Larry Levy, dean of the Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University, predicted feelings about Trump largely will largely determine the results in the district.

"If you tell me what Trump’s approval rating is in the First District, I’ll tell you Zeldin’s likely margin of victory, or loss," said Levy.

Levy noted that Zeldin has, "done something that Republican candidates in swing suburban districts around the country have avoided — tie himself directly to President Trump. He's all in."

Recent polling in the district has shown Republicans and Democrats sticking with their candidates at much higher rates than in previous years.

In a recent Siena College/New York Times poll of the 1st District, 90 percent of Republicans supported Zeldin while 87 percent of Democrats supported Gershon. Historically, 75 percent of a party's registrants would be for the party's candidate, Levy said.

"It's a level of hyper-partisanship," Levy said.

The 1st Congressional District has been Long Island's swing district.

Since the 1980s, three Republicans and two Democrats have held the seat, plus Michael Forbes who was a Republican before becoming a Democrat. Former Rep. Tim Bishop, a liberal Democrat, had the seat for 12 years before Zeldin defeated him in 2014. 

The district voted narrowly for President Barack Obama twice, but in 2016 went heavily for Trump.

The 1st District covers Brookhaven, Riverhead, Southampton, East Hampton, Shelter Island and Southold towns, as well as slices of Smithtown and Islip.

Republicans make up 34 percent of active registered voters, compared with 30 percent for Democrats. The rest are registered with minor parties or are unaffiliated with any party.

Zeldin, an attorney who served in the U.S. Army on active duty, and is still in the reserves, won election as a state senator in 2010.

Since Trump took office in 2017, Zeldin has embraced him in social media posts and cable news appearances.

He has held campaign events with Donald Trump Jr. and former Trump staffers including Seb Gorka, former deputy assistant to Trump, and Steve Bannon, former senior White House adviser.

Zeldin also has been critical of special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election, and has supported the hiring of a second special counsel to investigate misconduct by the Department of Justice and FBI in the 2016 presidential race.

Zeldin, however, voted against Trump's federal tax cut bill that capped the federal deduction for state and local taxes at $10,000. Zeldin said the measure represented a hardship for residents of high-tax states such as New York.

The congressman also has opposed an administration proposal to explore offshore drilling off Long Island.

Gershon, 56, a commercial real estate lender, had been registered to vote in Manhattan until last year, and had never thought about becoming a candidate.

Gershon rooted for Trump to win the 2016 Republican primary because he figured he couldn't win the general election, he said in a recent interview at his East Setauket office. Gershon said he spent the month before the general election joking, "that if Donald Trump wins, then we're going to move" out of the country. He said he was galvanized after the election to get involved in politics.

"When Trump won, that was a life-changing event for me," Gershon said.

Gershon recalled attending May 2017 fundraiser in Manhattan for U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.). Gillibrand said those who wanted to make a difference should "go run for office yourself." Gershon looked at his wife and said, "I'm going to challenge Lee Zeldin."

On the advice of Bishop and former Rep. Steve Israel, who once chaired the campaign committee for House Democrats, Gershon started fundraising, and won attention in a crowded Democratic primary field earlier this year.

Gershon raised $2.1 million for the June 26 primary, including $1.3 million he contributed and loaned himself, and won the five-way race.

Progressive groups, who had been criticizing Zeldin since Trump's inauguration, said Gershon has gained their trust.

Eileen Duffy, founder of "Let’s Visit Lee Zeldin," a closed Facebook group with 4,000 members who organized rallies against Zeldin, said Gershon is "very dedicated, and very clear from the get-go he’s a really good person and his heart is in right place. He's doing this for reasons that go beyond building up his own ego."

Steve Louro, a Nissequogue businessman who hosted an August fundraiser for Zeldin that featured Donald Trump Jr., said Zeldin is popular on his own, but the president's support helps him. Even if Trump is a polarizing national figure, "There's a hidden motivated love for Trump in our area," Louro said.

Zeldin has attacked Gershon for changing his registration from Manhattan to his East Hampton home last year.

"They're figuring out he's not one of us," Zeldin said of voters.

Gershon defended his roots in the district

"I've been a taxpayer in this district since 1999. I was married in this district. I have ties in this district. I had two homes," he said. "I tended to be in Manhattan on Election Day and I never thought about where I should be voting. In hindsight, I wish I did it differently."
On a recent weekday, Gershon introduced himself around at the Stony Brook Student Activities Center.

"I'm the Democrat running against Lee Zeldin," he said to students and workers who passed. "I'm not a fan of Trump."
"You got me. It's as easy as being blue this year," said Chassitty Fiani, 28, of Lake Grove. "We need a system of checks and balances."

Many students were unresponsive, or noncommittal about their plans to vote.

"It's a little surprising there were not stronger opinions," Gershon said after campaigning. "This is supposed to be the most polarizing time in political history."

Still, Gershon said he sees a Democratic wave hitting Suffolk County.

"I do think there's going to be a wave. I don't know how big, but I do," he said. "Democrats, when they win, win narrowly in the district here. They win when Democrats are motivated to vote."

Zeldin dismissed talk of a blue wave.

"There was an enthusiasm gap that has now been equalized where both Republicans and Democrats are motivated," he said. The confirmation hearing of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh was one factor that contributed to the closing gap, he said.

Zeldin, campaigning earlier this month in a St. James over-55 community, knocked on doors accompanied by Smihtown tax receiver Deanna Varricchio, a Republican.

"It's been a privilege to represent you in Congress, and it would be an honor to continue to represent you in the nation's capital," said Zeldin as he passed out palm cards.

"You take care of the seniors, that's what's on my mind," said Peter Pellicani, 86, a retired Civil Service worker. Pellicani said he want a strong military and was concerned about people with prior medical problems. They, he said, "should be covered."

"I agree," Zeldin said.

At another house, Frank Vivona, a 74-year-old retired guidance counselor, asked Zeldin if the National Rifle Association still supported him.

"I happen to be a life member of the NRA. I support the 2nd Amendment," Zeldin said. He said "common sense solutions" like banning bump stocks, get stopped by "partisan fighting."

Vivona said while he didn't support Zeldin's support of the NRA, he'd support Zeldin.

He said he didn't know much about Gershon. 

By David M. Schwartz

dschwar1@newsday.comschwartznewsNY

David Schwartz covers environmental issues. A native Long Islander, he's worked at Newsday since 2013.