Money talks, but not always loudly enough

Money means plenty, but not everything, in a political campaign. We learn this again and again.

Suffolk GOP chairman John Jay LaValle made a good point the other night when he said Angie Carpenter's loss in the county executive race reflected Democrat Steve Bellone's big funding advantage.

Then again, LaValle also made a good point a month ago when he said of Bellone's monetary edge: "Cash in hand doesn't win elections. Product on the street wins elections and I think we're doing a much better job."

The two statements from the same party leader may sound a bit contradictory -- but they really show two sides of the same campaign coin.

Operatives know contributions can signal strength, and purchase ads and assistance, and the resulting momentum can keep the usual donors from backing the opponent. But the better-funded candidate can lose anyway based on message, record, party, voter mood, interest-group backing and you-name-what-else.

On Tuesday night, while Bellone was defeating Carpenter by a still-unofficial 57 percent to 43 percent, Erie County's Republican executive, Chris Collins, lost to Democrat Mark Poloncarz, 54 percent to 46 percent, despite better fundraising figures.

Eleven days before that Western New York election, Poloncarz reported spending about $161,000 over the previous three weeks, and had close to $249,000 on hand. Collins, a conservative ex-businessman, reported spending more than $467,000 during the prior three weeks, with nearly $853,000 left on hand.

For Collins, the outcome seemed like a partisan reverse of Democratic Nassau executive Thomas Suozzi's 2009 loss -- though the Long Islander had a bigger funding edge and lost by only the slimmest margin.

This week's election was generally seen as a low-turnout, low-key, off-year prelude to a premium, higher-turnout New York election cycle -- one that will feature state legislative seats, congressional bids, redistricting, a U.S. Senate contest and a presidential vote.

Background noise for 2012 began months ago. By early Wednesday, some Democrats were putting a positive shine on the previous day's results. State Sen. Michael Gianaris (D-Queens), who heads the Senate Democratic Campaign Committee, cited his party's gains in different places.

"The best news of the day was that Democrats came back and voted for Democrats," Gianaris said.

Results statewide, however, defied the concept of a wave.

The Broome County executive's office went from Democratic to Republican. Dutchess elected one Republican to succeed another. Albany's Democratic candidate was elected without opposition, but the GOP incumbent won re-election in Oneida.

And, in Monroe County, votes and money were aligned for Republican Executive Maggie Brooks. She won a third term by defeating the 1998 Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor, Sandra Frankel. Outspent 6-to-1, Frankel was quoted on election night saying: "Despite the funding disparity, we won a moral victory."

After a couple of surprises sink in, and the closest scrapes are decided in recounts, the noise of next year's main events turn up a notch. As it does, we'll see once more that political money talks, but doesn't quite dictate.