Paladino has few supporters on LI, poll finds

Long Island is not Carl Paladino country.

Voters in the Newsday/Siena Research Institute poll said they would choose Attorney General Andrew Cuomo over the Buffalo businessmen by a margin of 61 percent to 27 percent, with 10 percent undecided. Just 22 percent viewed Paladino favorably, compared to 61 percent who admired Cuomo. And 81 percent expected Cuomo to win the race.

Voters see Cuomo as better able to address just about any issue than Paladino, and Siena also found a gender gap: 67 percent of women and 56 percent of men hold a favorable view of Cuomo, while 27 percent of men liked Paladino, compared to 17 percent of women.

"Overwhelmingly, Andrew Cuomo is viewed favorably, Carl Paladino unfavorably and come election night, expect Long Island to contribute to making the attorney general our next governor," said Don Levy, director of the Siena institute.

Those 1,001 Nassau and Suffolk voters were interviewed between Oct. 11 and 17, on the eve of Paladino's debate performance at Hofstra University. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Paladino "just seems like a real loose cannon, like there's no filter between what he's thinking and what he says," said Republican John Duane of East Meadow, a banker who would have voted for ex-GOP candidate Rick Lazio.

By far the closest race on Long Island is the attorney general's race, with Democratic state Sen. Eric Schneiderman's edge over Republican Dan Donovan, the Staten Island district attorney, too close to call at 39 to 37. A decisive 24 percent of voters had yet to make up their minds on that contest.

And Long Island's members of Congress should be feeling nervous about the voter unrest uncovered by Siena's pollsters, who found only 38 percent of voters inclined to return their local U.S. representative to office. By contrast, 43 percent said they preferred someone else, and 19 percent were unsure or had no opinion. The dissatisfaction was slightly more pronounced in Suffolk, with 45 percent looking for an alternative.

Gillibrand up by 10 points

Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand has been considered vulnerable since the day she was appointed to replace Hillary Rodham Clinton. On Long Island, Siena found her with a 10-point lead over Republican Joseph DioGuardi, 48 to 38, but 14 percent were still undecided. By contrast, the state's senior senator, Charles Schumer, leads Republican Jay Townsend by 62 percent to 30 percent.

State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli found more support, leading Republican Harry Wilson, a former hedge-fund manager, by 51 percent to 30 percent. But 19 percent of voters were undecided, and campaign advertising and news coverage has sharply intensified in that race last week.

Behind the uncertainty is the state's perilous fiscal condition and voters' pessimism. Sixty-seven percent believed New York is headed in the wrong direction, and 61 percent felt the same way about Long Island.

"Long Islanders today are far more pessimistic about the direction that both New York and the Island are headed than they were a year ago," Levy said.

Nonwhite Long Islanders are more optimistic than whites: 32 percent told Siena they believe the state is headed in the right direction, compared with 15 percent of whites.

For all the splash it has made this year, the tea party movement does not fare particularly well here: just 35 percent of registered voters have a favorable view of it, while 48 percent are unfavorable. That sympathy is linked strongly with gender: 43 percent of men have a favorable view of the movement, but only 28 percent of women do.

Property taxes top concern

Not surprisingly, property taxes continue to top the list of concerns for voters, with 43 percent calling it the No. 1 issue. The availability of jobs comes in second with 27 percent, and quality of the schools third at 11 percent. A resounding 78 percent of Long Island voters favor a property tax cap, support that crosses all genders, parties, religions, ethnicities and income levels.

On who would do a better job on key issues, Cuomo topped Paladino: on Long Island's needs (60 to 26): creating jobs (57 to 29) and on making Albany less dysfunctional (56 to 30). His advantage over Paladino is smallest when it comes to controlling the growth of property taxes (49 to 38) and reducing the state's budget deficit (50 to 37).

"As attorney general he cut out a lot of the crime, and when I called him when I wanted help, he helped me," said Hymie Bormer of Central Islip, who is disabled and got help from Cuomo's office in sorting out a conflict with an insurance company.

But some are frustrated by how little substantive discussion there's been on pressing issues. "I just haven't heard anything that makes sense to me," said Eric Hibbert of Baldwin, who works for a company that buys distressed debt. "One guy just sort of yells, and the other guy is playing a little defense."