Quinnipiac poll: Cuomo leads Paladino by just 6 points

ALBANY - In what experts said was a "wake-up call" for Democrats, the party's gubernatorial nominee Andrew Cuomo is leading Republican Carl Paladino by 6 percentage points in a survey of likely voters released Wednesday.

The Quinnipiac University Poll found Cuomo, the state's most popular politician, beats Paladino 49 to 43 percent among people planning to vote in the Nov. 2 elections. Seven percent were undecided, while 21 percent said they might change their minds about whom to support. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

Hours after the poll results were known, Cuomo was endorsed by Mayor Michael Bloomberg, re-elected last year on the GOP and Independence Party ballot lines. Cuomo said the endorsement shows his bipartisan appeal.

However, the Quinnipiac poll of 751 probable voters - the first in the general election cycle to survey likely voters - found Cuomo does best among Democrats and women. Paladino, a Buffalo businessman, is strongest among tea party supporters and Republicans.

Such results are in marked contrast to other polls of registered voters conducted by Quinnipiac and the Siena Research Institute. Those showed Cuomo leading Paladino and former Rep. Rick Lazio, the Conservative Party nominee, by more than 2-1. Wednesday's survey did not include Lazio.

"The shift from registered voters to likely voters favors Republicans as more conservative voters are more energized to vote now," said Quinnipiac pollster Maurice Carroll.

Experts agreed, calling the results a warning to the state Democratic Committee about mobilizing unions, minorities and other party faithful.

"Quinnipiac conducts rigorous, scientific polls, and this one shows there will be an election campaign, not a coronation of Andrew Cuomo," said Douglas Muzzio, a political scientist at Baruch College in Manhattan.

Joseph Mercurio, a Democratic media consultant, said Paladino has gained from a week's news coverage since his stunning victory over Lazio in the GOP primary last Tuesday.

Asked about the poll results, Cuomo said others would be out this week. "I take them all with a grain of salt," he said. Paladino aide Michael Caputo said the poll had sparked a "sudden monsoon" of campaign donations.

Also Wednesday, Lazio stopped short of saying whether he would continue his candidacy. GOP leaders urged him to drop out in a letter Tuesday, which he dismissed. Last night in Suffolk, 90 percent of 700 Conservatives in a straw poll opted to dump him for Paladino. With Rick Brand

Quinnipiac University poll

If the election for governor were being held today, for whom would you vote?

Democrat Andrew Cuomo 49%

Republican Carl Paladino 43%

Other: 1%

Don't know/NA: 7%

Is your mind made up, or might you change your mind before the election?

Made up: 79%

Might change: 21%

Do you consider yourself part of the tea party movement?

Yes: 18%

No: 79%

Don't know/NA: 4%

Percents may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Survey of 751 likely New York voters conducted Sept. 16-20.

Margin of error: +/-3.6 percentage points

Source: Quinnipiac University Polling Institute