Redistricting is state's top 2012 issue

ALBANY

It won't draw national attention to New York State like this year's vote on same-sex marriage.

But rest assured, redistricting will be the biggest political issue of 2012.

It involves the drawing of election district lines based on new U.S. Census data for both the State Legislature and New York's congressional delegation, which will lose two seats.

The task must be completed in time for the 2012 elections. In practical terms, that means finishing the lines by next spring so that ballot process can get under way.

There's a lot riding on it: control of the State Senate, the long-term prospects of the Republican Party and the agenda of Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, for starters. That alone means redistricting could influence every political negotiation of next year's legislative session.

Cuomo and lawmakers tiptoed around the topic in 2011.

Traditionally, governors have looked the other way while the parties in control of the Assembly and Senate drew their own lines. Watchdog groups routinely assail the process, saying it creates gerrymandered districts.

Cuomo introduced a bill to give the task to an independent commission. That won the applause of good-government groups but not the Legislature.

Now, lawmakers have launched a series of statewide hearings on redistricting to develop their own plan; the third installment was held in Albany this week. The caravan comes to Long Island on Oct. 5.

Cuomo vowed to veto any plan in which district sizes vary more than 1 percent from the mean -- 305,000 residents for Senate districts, 126,500 for Assembly. Currently, districts can vary in population by plus or minus 5 percent. That means some Senate districts have up to 318,484 residents and some as few as 290,925. The leeway allows lawmakers to protect incumbents, critics say.

Republicans hold a 32-30 advantage in the Senate, but statewide enrolled Democrats outnumber Republicans 5.3 million to 2.7 million, the lowest GOP enrollment going back to the early 1990s. Many political observers say that controlling district lines is invaluable to the GOP's underdog chances of holding on to the chamber.

Cuomo enjoyed strong support from the GOP for his fiscal agenda in his first year. But on this issue, the players have moved so far out on the rhetorical limb that there's no obvious compromise available -- not one, anyway, that won't involve someone losing face.

Dan Janison is on vacation.