Tight election races on LI, state, nation

It's the year of angry voters and a referendum on Barack Obama halfway into his first term as president.

Republicans are hoping to capitalize on the anger and Obama's declining popularity by recapturing control of the House of Representatives in Washington, and the State Senate in Albany. Under one scenario amid the shifting parts, Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) could end up as majority leader, while Rep. Peter King (R-Seaford) could become head of the House Homeland Security Committee.

The three big statewide offices - governor, attorney general and comptroller - also are up.

All of it could have large implications for Long Island and New York State. Here's what's at stake tomorrow:

Governor, attorney general and state comptroller

According to the polls, Andrew Cuomo is far ahead in the race for governor. Experts say what may matter most is the size of his margin over Republican Carl Paladino - and what that means for his clout as governor.

"It's a foregone conclusion," veteran Albany lobbyist Desmond Ryan said of Cuomo's predicted triumph.

Cuomo, a Democrat, has pledged to clean up state government, reform campaign finance and rein in spending - goals that will not be easy to accomplish given Albany's notoriously dysfunctional Legislature.

For his part, Paladino - a tea party-backed Republican who contends he is "mad as hell" - is casting himself as the ultimate outsider ready to take a baseball bat to state government, as he once stated.

One key issue the contest could affect for Long Islanders is school aid. Cuomo recently stated that as governor he may reduce school aid, and make districts compete for it. Experts say that could make it harder for Long Island to attract school aid.

In the race for attorney general, polls indicate a close contest between Eric Schneiderman, a Democratic state senator from Manhattan's Upper West Side, and Daniel Donovan, the Republican district attorney for Staten Island.

Schneiderman is generally viewed as the more liberal candidate, a supporter of rent control, abortion rights and same-sex marriage. Donovan has presented himself as a law-and-order candidate who, while opposed to abortion, says he would still uphold a woman's freedom to choose.

Equally competitive is the race for state comptroller. Incumbent Thomas DiNapoli, 56, a former Democratic assemblyman from Great Neck Plaza, is in the political fight of his life to hold on to his post against Harry Wilson, 39, a Republican from Scarsdale who is retired as a hedge fund manager.

Wilson contends that "this state is totally screwed up financially" and he is the man to fix it. DiNapoli counters that he has "turned around an office that was under a cloud of suspicion," and this is no time to change horses.

From a parochial point of view, if DiNapoli loses, Long Island would lose a voice in Albany, though Wilson asserts his leadership would help the state as a whole.

Fight for control of the state Senate

As those races heat to a boil, state Republicans are looking to break through the Democrats' hold on at least one of the three main seats of power in Albany. While the governorship and the Assembly may well be out of reach for now, Republicans believe they have a real shot at gaining control of the State Senate, where Democrats hold a slim 32-29 majority.

If Republicans take over, state Sen. Dean Skelos of Rockville Centre likely would become Senate majority leader, a position he held when the GOP was in control.

In the 2008 election, Democrats took control of the State Senate for the first time in 43 years. That gave Democrats a political Triple Crown - control of the Senate, Assembly and governorship at the same time.

But now that domination is in jeopardy for them, partly because of races like the one between first-term state Sen. Brian X. Foley (D-Blue Point) and Republican Lee Zeldin, an Iraq war veteran. Some, such as veteran Albany lobbyist Desmond Ryan, believe Foley is in trouble, partly because of his vote in favor of the controversial MTA payroll tax. "I think he is going to need a miracle to pull it off," Ryan said. Foley contends he has a strong chance of winning.

Eric Alexander, head of Vision Long Island, a smart growth nonprofit group, said that in general he believes candidates who have done extensive grassroots work will have an advantage in this tough electoral season. "It's time to be close to the voters," he said.

Fight for control of Congress

On the national scene, Long Island will play a role in the Republicans' quest to take control of the House of Representatives. The GOP is targeting Rep. Tim Bishop (D-Southampton), who is in a hard-fought race against Republican Randy Altschuler. Both Republicans and Democrats have been pouring money into the contest, and attack ads on television have been especially ferocious.

The most recent Siena Research Institute poll on the race, released Oct. 13, had Bishop ahead by 12 points - 51 percent to 39 percent among likely voters. But if Altschuler were to pull off a victory, it would mean the loss to Long Island of a member of the powerful House Transportation Committee. Bishop sits on subcommittees on highways and transit, water resources and maritime transportation, through which he's able to help steer money to the region.

Another closely watched race pits Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D-Mineola), seeking her eighth term, against Republican Fran Becker, who has served nearly 15 years as a Nassau County legislator.

If Republicans take control of the House, as many analysts predict, that would mean Seaford's King could advance from ranking minority member of the Homeland Security Committee to its chairman. The committee oversees about $52 billion in federal spending.

While Democrats are expected to hold on to control of the U.S. Senate, they could see their 59-41 advantage reduced. And Harry Reid, the Nevada senator who serves as Senate majority leader for the Democrats, faces a real possibility of losing his seat.

If that happens, Schumer is considered a leading candidate for majority leader. While Reid's loss would obviously hurt Democrats, it could also indirectly help Long Islanders and all New Yorkers by leading to Schumer's elevation.