Michelle Harris at Rockabetty's Hair Parlor on Monday in California's...

Michelle Harris at Rockabetty's Hair Parlor on Monday in California's Sutter County, which allowed many of its businesses to reopen despite the state's stay-at-home order. Credit: AP / Rich Pedroncelli

Numbing numbers

A key model of the coronavirus pandemic favored by the White House nearly doubled its prediction Monday for how many people will die of COVID-19 in the U.S. by August to 134,000 — primarily because of states reopening too soon. A projection prepared for private White House use was even more dire, estimating the daily death toll will rise to 3,000 on June 1, nearly double the current number of about 1,750, The New York Times reported.

The first forecast comes from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine. The institute's director, Dr. Christopher Murray, told reporters on a call Monday the primary reason for the increase is many states’ “premature relaxation of social distancing.” Data from cellphone providers shows a major uptick in Americans going out in public in the last seven to 10 days, which in turn is likely leading to an increase in transmission, he said. But the IMHE foresaw a daily death rate of 890 by June 1.

The White House on Monday acknowledged the existence of the grimmer internal forecast, developed by Johns Hopkins Medical School scientists for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But spokesman Judd Deere said that model had not gone through interagency vetting.

Some states already are beginning to put parts of the White House’s phased reopening plan into motion, despite concerns that the administration’s guidelines for doing so have not yet been met. The estimates bolster fears that moving too fast to relax social distancing restrictions could fuel a dangerous second wave of infections, Politico noted.

Public pressure to ease restrictions is rising even in states with significant outbreaks. This weekend, thousands gathered in California to protest coronavirus restrictions, leading to 32 arrests at the state Capitol.

President Donald Trump's aides believe that restarting the economy, even with its health risks, is essential to a reelection victory in November, The Associated Press reported.

Trump will begin resuming travel Tuesday with a trip to a mask factory in Arizona.

Janison: Too good to be true

The good news Trump peddles on coronavirus keeps proving fake, while the bad news he tries to dispute or suppress comes up all too real, writes Newsday's Dan Janison.

The constant happy talk adds up to nothing relevant. First, the nation was to "reopen" with packed church pews by Easter. Warmer weather in April would kill the virus, the president had said. Even late last week, he said: "It's gonna go, it's gonna leave, it's gonna be gone, it's gonna be eradicated. It might take longer, it might be in smaller sections. It won't be what we had." 

Trying to bury real news is the flip side of this happy-talk habit. On Friday, Trump moved to replace a Department of Health and Human Services official whose report described supply shortages and coronavirus testing delays at hospitals around the U.S. It was a rather routine document meant to help bureaucrats navigate problems, but Trump saw an enemy to silence.

Trump ad: Our 'greatest comeback' story

A new 60-second Trump campaign ad says his leadership, including during the coronavirus crisis, is giving the U.S. the "greatest comeback story" in its history.

Remember those thank-yous Trump solicited from state and local officials? Snippets of praise from Democratic Govs. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York and Gavin Newsom of California are in the ad. The flyovers by the Navy's Blue Angels and the Air Force Thunderbirds to salute health care workers? That's in there, too.

Senate's no to Biden on records search

The Senate has rejected a request from Joe Biden to search for and release any record of a 1993 complaint from Tara Reade, his former staffer who now accuses him of sexually assaulting her back then.

The presumptive Democratic nominee denies the assault ever happened, and Reade said she doesn't have a copy of the complaint she said she filed.

Julie Adams, the secretary of the Senate, said legal counsel determined that under relevant laws and based on strict confidentiality requirements, she “has no discretion to disclose any such information as requested in Vice-President Biden’s letter."

The Biden campaign responded by asking if the Senate can disclose whether the records exist, and could such records be released if Reade agreed to it? The answers: no and no.

Warren: I believe Biden

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a prospective running mate for Biden, said she accepts his denial of Reade's allegations after watching the interview he gave on MSNBC last Friday.

Warren told reporters on Capitol Hill: “I saw the reports of what Ms. Reade said; I saw an interview with Vice President Biden. I appreciate that the vice president took a lot of questions, tough questions. And he answered them directly and respectfully. The vice president's answers were credible and convincing.”

More coronavirus news

See a roundup of the latest pandemic developments from Long Island and beyond by Newsday's reporting staff, written by Bart Jones. For a full list of Newsday's coronavirus stories, click here.

What else is happening:

  • The White House has moved to limit the number of coronavirus task force members testifying in congressional hearings after recently blocking Dr. Anthony Fauci, a key member of the task force, from appearing before a House subcommittee this week, CNN reported.
  • An investor group aligned with Donald Trump Jr. has acquired a major stake in the far-right One America News Network, Vanity Fair reported. The group includes the family of Tommy Hicks Jr., a Republican National Committee co-chair and hunting buddy of the president's son.
  • The Treasury Department announced Monday that it will borrow a record $3 trillion through June because of pandemic costs. The figure for the second quarter of 2020 is more than double the $1.3 trillion the department borrowed for all of last year.
  • Meatpackers have begun to reopen cautiously their processing plants that were closed because of coronavirus outbreaks, but some workers remain wary. Amid concerns about a meat shortage despite an executive order from Trump last week to keep the plants open, Costco joined other merchandisers Monday in limiting fresh-meat purchases per customer.
  • Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said it's "too hard to tell at this point" whether international flights will resume this year. "But this is a great time for people to explore America," he said Monday on Fox Business Network. 
  • The Justice Department is siding with a Virginia church challenging Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam's executive orders limiting in-person gatherings during the pandemic, CBS News reported.
Will Grayson Meak faceoff against Devin Downes in counties? Meanwhile North Babylon’s Jasmine McKay hoops it up and there's history on the mat in Nassau County in Episode 2 of "Sarra Sounds Off."  Credit: Mario Gonzalez

SARRA SOUNDS OFF: Wrestling, North Babylon hoops and more! Will Grayson Meak faceoff against Devin Downes in counties? Meanwhile North Babylon's Jasmine McKay hoops it up and there's history on the mat in Nassau County in Episode 2 of "Sarra Sounds Off." 

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