What Cuomo, Paladino must do to win Monday's debate

They've been taking shots at each other for weeks now. Monday night at Hofstra University, Democratic Attorney General Andrew Cuomo and Republican Carl Paladino, a Buffalo businessman, will have their first, and possibly only, chance at a face-to-face debate - along with five other candidates who appear on minor-party lines. Here's what a variety of experts say the two front-runners must do to come out a winner.

ANDREW CUOMO

Be the governor

After Paladino taunted Cuomo that he was seeking to exclude the only woman and only African-American in the race, Cuomo agreed to debate everyone - setting the stage for an event that includes a former madam and an unknown running on the "Rent Is 2 Damn High" line.

"It was an extremely shrewd move on his [Cuomo's] part," Desmond Ryan, executive director of the Association for a Better Long Island, a business organization, said, because it leaves Paladino unable to position himself as Cuomo's equal, as he might have in a one-on-one matchup.

For Cuomo, though, "it's a delicate balance, rising above the fray without seeming removed or aloof from it," said Lawrence Levy, who runs Hofstra University's National Center for Suburban Studies. "You don't want to seem condescending. You don't want to be seen as rolling your eyes and shaking your head. You want to seem respectful . . . but you don't want to get dragged down into an exchange with someone who couldn't hold your coat."

Watch your mouth

Debates often boil down to one fatal moment - as in the 2000 U.S. Senate race, when former Rep. Rick Lazio waved a piece of paper bearing a campaign finance pledge in Hillary Rodham Rodham Clinton's face - that is replayed endlessly to devastating effect.

"Paladino has taken center stage by saying things that have offended a great number of people," said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. "Andrew Cuomo had a problem in his 2002 campaign saying something that offended a great number of people. He's got to avoid that."

Greenberg was referring to Cuomo's statement in his first campaign for governor that "There was one leader on 9/11. It was Rudy Giuliani" - while Republican George Pataki, governor at the time of the attacks, "stood behind the leader. He held the leader's coat."

That statement, quickly repudiated by Giuliani, has haunted Cuomo ever since.

"Candidates often say things they live to regret," Greenberg said, "and the principal rule for all candidates is to avoid that at all costs."

Show us your plan

"Cuomo has to find a way to convey that he has a comprehensive, well-thought out plan to get New York back on track," said Patrick Halpin, a former Suffolk County executive and now lobbyist for Cablevision, which owns Newsday.

. "He has to focus on two or three major reforms that he is going to tackle as soon as he becomes governor, and be emphatic about it. People want real answers. . . . The state's broke."

Levy and Ryan agree that, given his huge lead in the polls, Cuomo's best use of this debate would be to build popular support for the difficult actions he will need to take as governor two months from now.

"He needs to say something about his agenda for January 2011," said Ryan. "What was once the Empire State is being referred to as the Vampire State. What is he going to do to address this?"

CARL PALADINO

Stay on message

With his campaign tossed about by distractions, Paladino has promised to refocus on policy, and it begins with him being a disciplined and serious debater Monday night, experts said.

"People are going to be looking at him and expecting him to say something outlandish," said Rep. Peter King (R-Seaford). "The biggest surprise he can show is to be serious-minded and have proposals. If he says something serious, it's going to be attention-grabbing. That's the advantage of him being so controversial."

Paladino cannot stray from his message of tax cuts, cleaning up Albany and slashing government waste, said Michael Long, leader of the Conservative Party, which has endorsed Paladino. Voters will respond to tough talk about cleaning up Albany, but will be turned off by more comments about homosexuality or Cuomo's supposed marital infidelities, Long said.

"He has to give a clear message as to what he intends to do as governor," Long said. "He has to convince people that he is the guy who can turn the state around."

Attack Cuomo on substance

Republicans believe Cuomo, as the son of a former governor and the attorney general for four years, is vulnerable to the charge of being too cozy with Albany insiders.

"This is going to be a puncher versus a boxer and Paladino has a puncher's chance," said Michael Dawidziak, a Bohemia political consultant who has worked on four GOP presidential campaigns. "He's got to tag Cuomo as part of the old Albany elite, same old, same old. . . . He's got to try to get under Cuomo's skin."

But he must leave behind the old attacks on Cuomo's love life, parenting skills and manhood, experts said.

"His message has to be: If you want business as usual, then your guy is Andrew Cuomo," Long said. "If you want bold change, Carl Paladino will reduce taxes and cut spending."

Soften his image

Paladino also needs to focus on his personal story as the son of immigrants and successful businessman, and contrast it with Cuomo, who has worked in politics or government most of his life, experts said. And he has to tone down his sharper language and connect with moderate voters who may agree with him on issues but are turned off by his brash style.

"He needs to look and sound gubernatorial without being boring," Dawidziak said.

Most important, perhaps, is knowing how to avoid a gaffe when presented with a difficult question.

"Any more blemishes, any more bad behavior, and he's history," said Democratic political consultant Hank Sheinkopf.