What to watch in GOP primary

WASHINGTON -- In two days the grueling 10-month marathon for president begins on a chilly night in the heartland as Republicans gather in the Iowa caucuses to begin picking a nominee to run against President Barack Obama.

The GOP's Big Shakeout starts this month, as a half a dozen politicians seeking the nomination face a series of must-pass tests: six televised debates and, more important, four crucial primary contests -- one each week until Jan. 31.

Emerging from this gantlet will either be one winner who will go on to face Obama, or a handful of front-runners who will begin a race to collect delegates on Super Tuesday in March and later primaries, including in New York on April 24.

Starting Tuesday and ending when all voters go to the polls for the general election on Nov. 6, this year's presidential race is expected by analysts to be very close, politically harsh and quite expensive.

In a campaign that likely will mirror Washington's partisan divide, Obama will try to overcome the sluggish economy by taking aim at the GOP nominee, who in turn will try to make the election a referendum on the president.

"I would expect that on Feb. 1 there would be no more than three candidates left in the race with a chance of winning," said Peter A. Brown, associate director of the Quinnipiac University poll. "There might even be fewer."

But almost anything could happen as polling gives way to voting in the Iowa caucuses on Tuesday, the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 10, the South Carolina primary on Jan. 21 and the Florida primary on Jan. 31.

And the roller coaster GOP presidential race that has seen hopefuls rise and fall has pollsters hedging their bets.

Recent polls show former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney steady as a front-runner, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich's surge deflating, Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) gaining and former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania rising in Iowa, as Texas Gov. Rick Perry, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and former Ambassador Jon Huntsman trail.

Surveys in those states also show most Republicans are just making up their minds now about which candidate they will back.

With so much up in the air, here are four things to watch during the January shakeout.

Mitt vs. everyone else

Since the day in June that Romney announced he would run again for president, many conservatives have sought to find an alternative.

Gingrich, most recently the top choice for that role, has faded under attacks by Paul, Santorum, Bachmann and Perry.

Huntsman meanwhile is betting on winning New Hampshire as the anti-Romney candidate.

To mount a significant challenge to Romney, conservatives must coalesce behind one candidate. Iowa and South Carolina, home to the most conservative voters, could determine whether a two-person race will happen.

Playing the expectations

In these early states it's often not whether you win or lose, it's whether you beat the expectations for your performance.

In 2008, Romney poured more money than anyone else into Iowa and South Carolina, raising expectations for a first-place finish. But he came in a distant second to dark horse candidate Mike Huckabee in Iowa, and fourth in South Carolina.

This time, he initially took a low-key approach so even a third-place finish in either state would look respectable. But now it looks as if he's going all out for a win in Iowa.

Santorum and Bachmann are staking their campaigns on Iowa. They lose if they finish out of the top three; Santorum said he'll quit if he comes in last. Gingrich, Perry and Paul also are betting on a good showing there.

"Iowa remains a close race," said Caroline Tolbert of the Hawkeye Poll at the University of Iowa.

But Romney must win, and win big, in New Hampshire, said Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire.

"New Hampshire could deal Romney a potentially crippling blow," if Gingrich or some other Iowa winner makes New Hampshire a real race, Scala said.

Conversely, a strong showing by Romney in South Carolina could give him momentum, as it did for 2008 GOP nominee John McCain, Clemson University political scientist Dave Woodard said.

Expectations for Florida won't be set until front-runners emerge from earlier contests. A candidate's electability in the general election, and his or her TV ads and debate performances will matter most, said Susan MacManus, a University of South Florida political analyst.

"Florida could be the state that seals the deal," she said.

Money, money, money

Money has become even more important this year as Republicans have turned their primaries into a national election with a dozen televised debates and greater reliance on television ads.

So far, several big Republican donors have been waiting for the dust to clear before committing funds to a candidate, according to GOP fundraisers.

As Iowa and New Hampshire sort the winners and losers, donors will begin opening their checkbooks. Those who get the checks will go on. Those who don't will go home.

Take Tim Pawlenty, the former Minnesota governor. He quit the presidential race in August, saying he couldn't raise money.

New players to watch are the Super PACs. These political action committees emerged after the Supreme Court's Citizen United decision in 2010, which knocked down bans on corporations and labor unions raising unlimited funds to air political messages. Most candidates have the support of a Super PAC.

"They are a real key asset for the candidate. They are able to do the attack ads, while allowing the candidate to take the high road," said Sheila Krumholz, executive director of the Center for Responsive Politics, which tracks money in politics.

Super PACs, the center reported, had spent $4 million for Romney, $3.8 million for Perry and $1.9 million for Huntsman as of Friday.

The long slog

Romney or one of his rivals could wrap up the race by the end of this month by winning two or three of the contests.

But that might not happen.

"If you have a mixed result for the first four contests, this is likely to go on for a long time," said Larry Sabato, director of University of Virginia's Center for Politics.

That's true, in part, because of new Republican rules. In the past, the winner of a primary would take all the state's delegates.

This year, those who finish in the top tier in contests before April 1 win a proportional share of the state's delegates.

And the Republican primary calendar this year includes a three-week pause in February, giving candidates a chance to recoup or reconsider.

Perry and Paul said they will battle through January. But a long fight, many analysts said, favors Romney, who has the most money and the best organization of the candidates.

"We built a campaign to ensure Gov. Romney has the resources that are needed for a long nominating process," spokesman Ryan Williams said.