Poll: Pessimism grows about future of LI economy

Two-thirds of Long Island voters believe the regional economy is destined to stay in the doldrums or get even worse over the next five years, according to a new poll by Newsday and the Siena Research Institute.

The results highlight a feeling of pessimism that's existed throughout the recession.

"I don't see Long Island flourishing," said Guy Maniet, 74, of Wantagh. He said he hopes the economy will improve some day but sees it staying much the same. "I'm hoping for improvement. I have seven grandchildren [on Long Island]. Maybe they'll get smart and leave."

The public mood has gone downhill since Siena polled Long Islanders last September, with the percentage who say New York State is on the right track dropping from 31 percent to 15 percent. The share of those who believe Long Island is on the right track dropped from 34 percent to 28 percent, and 42 percent feel the economic situation here is deteriorating.

"A lot of people ask, have we hit bottom yet?" said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg. "These people's sentiment is, 'No, not yet.' "

Economists say they understand why people feel that way, but caution that those attitudes reflect the current state of the local economy and not necessarily where we're headed.

"Consumers, unlike businesses, don't plan ahead," said Irwin Kellner, chief economist of MarketWatch, a business website. "That's why I don't put much stock in consumer confidence surveys."

Siena conducted the telephone poll of 1,003 registered voters in Nassau and Suffolk over a nine-day period earlier this month. The poll has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

Negative outlook

In the midst of the worst recession in decades, only 31 percent of respondents said they expect the Island's economy to rebound in the next five years or so. There was little variation in most demographic groups, although Democrats and blacks tended to be more optimistic.

Long Islanders were more hopeful about their own financial prospects - 41 percent said they expected to be either somewhat or much improved financially in the next five years or so. But there were differences in how people responded depending on age and race.

Only 8 percent of whites expected to be in a much improved financial condition, but the proportion of people in other racial groups answering that way was more than three times as high.

Among older people, only 21 percent expected any financial improvement. More than half of those 54 years old or younger expected improvement.

That makes sense, economists said. Even if they're not in great shape now, younger people have decades to improve their lots.

"They're not that close to a dead end as far as their options are concerned," Kellner said.

Pearl Kamer, chief economist with the Long Island Association, the region's largest business group, said that, otherwise, peoples' pessimism reflects "an economy that has not gained traction."

But it may not be an accurate picture of where the region is going, she said. It may take a while for things to improve, but she said at some point they will. "Our best days are not necessarily behind us," Kamer said.

Changing times

The uncertainty is in marked contrast to attitudes on Long Island more than a decade ago, when the economy was roaring and before the terror attacks precipitated wars in two countries.

In March 1999, a Newsday/Hofstra University poll found 88 percent of Long Islanders expected they'd be doing as well or better in the future. Only 7 percent expected to do worse.

The Newsday/Siena results, on the other hand, are in line with recent polls done over the past year and a half, both on Long Island and statewide.

Some who took part in the new survey attributed their unease to high taxes and high unemployment, and a lack of action taken to address those issues.

The poll found that 33 percent of respondents saw their work hours reduced last year or, if self-employed, had less work. Thirty-six percent of Long Islanders earning less than $50,000 annually reported that a household member had been laid off in the past year; among all respondents, only 19 percent said that.

"I think things are getting worse," said management consultant Kenneth Nevor of Islip. "More companies are laying off people."

But others said the region couldn't stay down forever. "It's going to have to come back eventually," said Tom Gray, 72, a retired New York City homicide detective who lives in Levittown. "They're not going to let it falter too bad."

With Benjamin Wieder and Elizabeth Moore