Planners: Suffolk population to hit 1.74M

Suffolk's population will top out at 1.74 million -- 240,000 more people than today -- when the county is fully built out by 2035, according to the initial phase of a new county master plan.

Planning experts say the growth is less than half the 3.5 million originally projected as the ultimate population size when planners began making forecasts in the 1960s.

The lower growth projections, planners say, are the result of Suffolk's landmark land preservation efforts, town zoning restrictions and significant demographic changes that show that Suffolk's population is aging and households have become far smaller since the suburban boom of the 1950s and 1960s.

At a Hauppauge news conference, County Executive Steve Levy warned any significant growth "would create a challenge for us. We already have a great deal of traffic and pressure on the ecosystem and infrastructure; the challenge will be to prevent oversaturation while still growing the economy and preserving our precious open space."

The data collection, officials say, is the first step of the county master plan update, the first in 35 years. Now planners will examine the county's current transportation, housing and infrastructure, then make recommendations and strategies to implement the plan to accommodate the changing population. Levy said he wants the work done by year's end.

Planners say they expect the largest part of the projected 17 percent in growth will come in Brookhaven, which will experience a 108,000 rise in population. While Suffolk has more people than Nassau, its population density is only about one-third that of Nassau.

Suffolk's population is also shifting, according to planners. They say that the non-nuclear family -- either singles, empty nesters or households headed by single parents -- now dominate and the size of the average household has shrunk to 2.93, down from 3.74 at its peak in 1967.

The percentage of married households with children under 18 has dropped from 43 percent in 1980 to 27 percent in 2010. Meanwhile in the same period, the number of one-person households has grown from 52,754 to 102,900, a 95 percent increase, and nearly half of those are people 65 and older. Levy said Suffolk's population has aged from an average of 26 in 1960 to 40 in 2010.

Economically, planners say that Suffolk is showing strength. They say the county has 92 million square feet of industrial space, nearly double that of Nassau, with only a 5.7 percent vacancy rate, the third best in the nation. They also say that the county's downtowns, which have 8 million square feet of retail space, have a lower vacancy rate at 11 percent than shopping centers, which have 5.6 million square feet and have vacancy rate of 12 percent.