Siena poll says Rick Lazio, Carl Paladino in dead heat

ALBANY - The race for the Republican gubernatorial nomination is a dead heat, while two of five Democrats vying for state attorney general have finally emerged from the pack, according to polls released Saturday.

The Siena Research Institute found Rick Lazio and Carl Paladino almost tied, 43 percent to 42 percent, among GOP voters in Tuesday's primary. Fifteen percent were undecided.

Among Democrats running for attorney general, state Sen. Eric Schneiderman and Nassau District Attorney Kathleen Rice are neck and neck, 25-23. Sean Coffey, a former federal prosecutor, has 13 percent, followed by Assemb. Richard Brodsky of Westchester and former insurance Superintendent Eric Dinallo. But 29 percent of Democrats are undecided.

In both contests, the candidates are strongest in different regions and voter turnout will decide who prevails.

For example, Lazio, a former congressman from Suffolk, beats Paladino on Long Island and in other New York City suburbs, 55 percent to 30 percent. But Paladino, a Buffalo developer, leads Lazio upstate, 53-32. And among New York City's small cadre of GOP voters, Lazio defeats Paladino, 53-33.

"The percentage of eligible voters who show up on Tuesday - and who they are and where they come from - will likely determine the outcome," said pollster Steven Greenberg.

He and others predicted one in seven Democrats, and one in four or five Republicans, will cast ballots.

Siena's GOP poll found Lazio and Paladino splitting the votes of conservatives and tea party supporters, despite Paladino's entreaties.

Such results demonstrate Paladino has momentum, having closed a nearly 40-point gap, his campaign manager Michael Caputo said. "Rick Lazio's campaign is out of gas," he said.

Lazio spokesman David James shot back, saying the poll's trend lines point to a Lazio victory. "While Rick Lazio's momentum continues to solidify among Republicans, Conservatives and tea party activists, the bottom is falling out from under Carl Paladino," James said.

Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is the Democratic nominee for governor. In the race to succeed him as attorney general, Schneiderman leads Rice 2-1 among New York City Democrats, but she has a similar advantage in Nassau, Suffolk and suburbs north of the city. The winner will face GOP nominee Dan Donovan, the Staten Island district attorney.

Republicans seeking to unseat the two U.S. senators, both Democrats, remain unknown to many. Nearly 60 percent told Siena they didn't know or were undecided about whether political consultant Jay Townsend or former CIA agent Gary Berntsen should face Sen. Charles Schumer. Among those who have made a choice, Townsend beats Berntsen, of Port Jefferson, 25 percent to 17 percent.

In the three-way race to defeat Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, 46 percent of Republicans are undecided. Former Rep. Joe DioGuardi of Westchester is backed by 29 percent; conservative economist David Malpass, 14 percent, and former Nassau legislative Chief Bruce Blakeman, 11 percent.

Siena surveyed 615 Democrats and 610 Republicans Tuesday through Thursday. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.