Henri arrives this weekend, possibly as a hurricane, with high winds and drenching rains, forecasters say

Tropical-storm-force winds and drenching rains could hit Eastern Long Island when Henri arrives Saturday night, potentially in the form of a Category One hurricane off the coast, the National Weather Service said.

The storm, now expected to track 50 to 100 miles off Montauk Point on Sunday, already has prompted the National Hurricane Center to issue a hurricane watch for Long Island's South Shore, from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk, and the North Shore, from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk.  

"Tropical Storm Henri, about 450 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, is expected to continue moving west tonight before turning to the north on Friday and intensifying into a hurricane. It will likely near southern New England on Sunday as a Cat 1 hurricane, then weaken as it moves onshore and lingers into Monday," the weather service said in a Thursday night briefing.

"Wind, storm surge and rainfall impacts are possible Saturday Night into Sunday Night. The magnitude of these impacts is still uncertain, but the most significant impacts are likely for Eastern LI and SE CT," the storm briefing said.

Forecasters are hedging their bets, however, watching the storm's path and giving a range of possible impacts. There is "still quite a bit of uncertainty this far out," the weather service said.

"There is a moderate potential (30-60%) for Tropical Storm force winds (40 mph sustained winds with higher gusts) across the ocean, Long Island and southeastern Connecticut," the briefing said.

"There is a 1 in 3 chance of 60 mph sustained winds with hurricane force gusts across far eastern Long Island," it added.

Two to four inches of rain are predicted for the region, with possibly more for the East End and most of it falling Saturday night into Sunday night.

"Flooding" rains are expected for the East End with heavy rain still predicted for western Long Island.

The "worst-case" scenario includes a three- to five-foot storm surge along Peconic and Gardiners bay, the eastern Sound, the Twin Forks and ocean beachfront.

The "worst case" along the western Sound and southern bays is a two- to three-foot surge, forecasters said.

Forecasters say marine conditions and rip currents along coastal waters will be dangerous.