Winter 2011-12 may be among least snowy

Long Island is likely to ride out this winter with one of the lightest snowfall totals in history, according to several meteorologists.

To date, 5.5 inches of snow has fallen -- with spring less than a month away -- and there's no snow in the immediate forecast.

The winter with the least snow was 1997-98, with 4.5 inches, and there have been only five winters since 1947 with less than 10 inches of snow on Long Island, according to records kept by Brookhaven National Laboratory and the National Weather Service.

"This winter the jet stream has been kept well to the north, locking colder temperatures into the northern areas of Canada and Alaska," said Joey Picca, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Upton.

"Normally, when the jet stream buckles, cold air drives down into the U.S. and sits in place for a while," Picca said. "We haven't seen that develop this winter. When we do get a cold shot, it is quick to move out and we get back to warmer temperatures."

Bill Korbel, the chief meteorologist for News 12 Long Island, a corporate partner of Newsday, said he saw nothing on his radar screen for the next week or 10 days that might break the pattern of relatively mild weather.

"But March can hold surprises," Korbel said. "I urge you to Google the 'Blizzard of 1888.' That was one of the worst blizzards ever seen in our area."

SEE PHOTOSSnowstorms that buried LI over the past 100-plus years

While the jet stream and other large atmospheric conditions account for the weather, the reason for a lack of snowfall is simple: little precipitation and warm temperatures, and both of those are in evidence in the records of the National Weather Service.

There was 2.66 inches of precipitation this January compared with 4.19 inches in January 2011, the records show. So far this month, we've seen 0.37 inches of precipitation, compared with 3.73 inches last February.

As for temperatures, the average daily low has been 29.1 degrees so far this month, while average low last February was 23.4 degrees, the records show.

"I would say the major reason you have so little snow is because you guys are warm and dry," said Art DeGaetano, climatologist and director of the Cornell-based NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center in Ithaca. "I'd say it's more that you're not cold than you're not wet. You have only 60 percent of the normal precipitation and temperatures are well above normal."

The big question is can Long Island ride out the rest of the winter without a blizzard.

Brian Colle, a meteorologist at the School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences at Stony Brook University, said that when the weather gets into a pattern it tends to stay with it.

"If you get locked into cold weather in November, like we did last winter, it sticks," he said.