Census projects a jump in ratio of elderly to workers

The ratio of people 65 and older to those of traditional working age - 20 to 64 - is expected to jump so markedly, the nation will face a raft of economic challenges, the latest data indicates.

By 2050, the number of Americans aged 65 and older is projected to be 88.5 million - more than double that group's projected number now (40.2 million), according to a U.S. Census Bureau report released Thursday.

That growth, driven largely by baby boomers, will place an increasing burden on Social Security, Medicare and on families, businesses and health care providers, the report said.

It projects the 65-and-older group will increase from 13 percent of the population in 2010 to 19 percent, or 72 million, by 2030.

The report analyzes this growth in terms of a "dependency ratio" - the number of people age 65 and older to every 100 people of traditional working age (20 to 64). It says the ratio will "climb rapidly," going from 22 to every 100 of the younger workers this year, to 35 by 2030.

Local experts were not surprised by the findings. "Fewer workers per retirees will mean more extended families living together," predicted Seth Forman, chief planner for the Long Island Regional Planning Council.

Long Island experienced a modest increase in its 65 and older population, rising from 13.4 percent of the total population in 2000 to about 14 percent in 2008, according to bureau estimates.

While Nassau has slightly more people aged 65 and older than Suffolk, the population has increased more quickly recently in Suffolk, Forman said. That's largely because Nassau, settled first, saw families develop sooner and they have been "aging out" for the past 20 years. Nassau also had less room than Suffolk to house retirement communities.

Ellen Antonucci, vice president of marketing for The Bristal Assisted Living Communities, which has six Nassau County facilities, said while demand for the facilities has been consistent over the last five years, "we're trending a little older," with more people coming who are in their 80s. For many of them, that could mean more extensive care at higher costs, she said.

Dr. Suzanne Fields, chief of the Division of Geriatrics and General Internal Medicine at Stony Brook University School of Medicine, said while the elderly comprise 13 percent of the nation's population now, "they account for 50 percent of hospital occupancy and 70 percent of home-care agency cases."

That's prompted the medical establishment to start training students of medicine and other health disciplines to tend the needs of those older than 65, while also focusing on treatment of disease and prevention.

"The idea is if you can prevent the disabling diseases that occur with aging, that would be one way of preventing the expenses," she said.

Fields saw a need for more flexible work schedules to better accommodate the elderly who want to work past age 65, as well as for those workers caring for elderly relatives.