From the archives: A green Christmas, with Air Jordans under the tree

This story was originally published in Newsday on Nov. 24, 1996.

WHEN Linda Low thinks of Christmas past, two images remain burned in her memory: the abundance of snow and the scarcity of shoppers.

But Low has managed to put Christmas '95 behind her and has even expanded her Islip gift store, Little Shop of Shamrocks. She's convinced that this year will be more green than white.

"Traffic has been steady," she said. "This should be a good year."

With the peak part of the holiday shopping season set to kick off Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, retailers in Suffolk, Nassau, Queens and elsewhere across the country are counting on a generally improved U.S. economy to translate into better sales.

They're hoping that shoppers like Dorothy Hymowech of Commack are typical.

"I will probably spend more," Hymowech said one day last week during a shopping break at the Walt Whitman Mall in South Huntington. "I have a very positive attitude. The market is up. For good or bad, Clinton is in. That means stability."

Whatever happens this season, retailers say it can't be worse than the last one, when sales on Long Island and in many other parts of the country declined from the year before. Economists generally agree that the next few weeks should set more cash registers jingling than last year did.

"People are more secure about their jobs," said Pearl Kamer, chief economist for the Long Island Association, the region's largest business organization. "This is going to mean better sales."

The realization that just about every economic indicator is pointing in the right direction has many retailers breathing easier than they did last year, when the portents of a bad season were evident well before Thanksgiving. Snow fell before turkeys were set on holiday tables, keeping traffic light at malls and in downtown shopping districts. Corporate layoffs were still coming in waves.

The weather and the news gave shoppers a case of nerves.

From the very start of the 1995 season, "People were being selective," said Mike Burwasser, owner of the Pink Lady, a specialty clothing and gift store in downtown Huntington. "What sold, sold a lot. But the majority of things didn't."

Burwasser and many others in the industry say they expect brisker sales. Upscale retailers expect to do best, taking advantage of the boom on Wall Street that has left many residents of the metropolitan area - both those who work on the Street and those who invest there - feeling wealthier.

On Long Island, that is probably nowhere more true than at the Roosevelt Field Shopping Center in Garden City. A $150-million wing was completed this fall, adding 50 luxury stores, several of which had never before had an outlet in the region. Among them are Mont Blanc, the fine-writing intrument retailer that also sells items such as garment bags and attaches, and A / X Armani, the upscale clothier.

Toward the other end of the spectrum, mass merchandisers such as Sears, Roebuck and Co. and discounters such as Price Club / Costco are expected to do well. But mid-range stores such as J.C. Penney might struggle, retail analysts said.

And while it should be a better season for many merchants, few experts are predicting boom times like the 1980s.

"I think you're going to see a lot of singles and doubles, but no grand slams," said Steven Lutz, who follows the retail industry for A.G. Edwards & Sons, a St. Louis-based investment bank. Many national economists are predicting a 3-percent to 5-percent rise in holiday sales compared with last year's season, although some industry trade associations are forecasting larger gains.

There are several reasons why the season probably will be decent but not spectacular:

--With Thanksgiving coming as late as it possibly can, the peak season has five fewer shopping days this year. As a result, about 30 percent of 500 merchants surveyed by the National Retail Federation trade group said they will tighten inventories, up from 22 percent last year.

--Consumer confidence is improving, but personal debt is still high. Banks have been tightening credit standards since last spring, when personal bankruptcies reached a record of 989,177 filings for a 12-month period, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute. As a result, shoppers might think twice before buying a big-ticket item such as an appliance or a computer.

--Retailers will have to contend with a revitalized, and growing, catalog industry. After suffering last year from increases in postal rates and paper costs, catalog companies have shrunk in both staff and size, and emerged healthier. Industry officials said catalog sales are expected to hit $78 billion this year, a 12-percent increase over 1995's sales. Catalog retailers are refining merchandise and customer service as they seek sales improvements. Over the past year, Lands' End has been revamping its clothes; even staples such as turtlenecks have been changed.

--On Long Island, at least, traditional stores will have to battle expanding factory outlets, which sell directly from manufacturers to the public. The Bellport Outlet Center is almost doubling in size, with 25 new stores this season. The Tanger Factory Outlet Center in Riverhead is entering its third holiday season and is better-established than in past years.

Many retailers say they can accept a season in which sales gains are modest.

"From where we're sitting, we think things will be better," said Mary Stallone, part-owner of the Village Gift Shop in Sayville. "Things are busy already. A lot of people are coming in. People are decorating. They seem happy, confident."

But such feelings are by no means universal.

"To be perfectly honest, if the past two months are any indication, we're going downhill," said Ron Amkraut, owner of Newmans, a china, giftware and flatware store in Bayside, Queens. "The economy is kind of soft. Other people in my industry are telling me the same thing, so it's not that we're doing anything wrong."

Asked what he might do, Amkraut said, "We're just going to try to ride out the storm."

Others are not expecting a bumpy ride. Larry Friedman, a manager at Gianni, a clothing store at Roosevelt Field, is looking for sales to rise 8 percent to 10 percent, with leather coats, gloves and scarves selling well. "They're expecting a cold winter," he said.

In fact, retail experts say, apparel stores should have a much better year than they have had in several seasons.

"This is the best year for women's fashions in the '90s," said Alan Millstein, editor of Fashion Network Report, a trade publication in Manhattan. "On the designer end, clothes with the names Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger and Donna Karan are blowing out of the stores. On the luxury level, this country is label crazy."

It is not that stores are stocked with brand-new fashions that people can't wait to buy, the analysts said. Instead, people last year and in seasons past postponed buying clothes at Christmas and need to replenish their shelves.

"The things that will move are more durable, like leather coats," said Wendy Liebmann, president of WSL Strategic Retail, industry consultants in Manhattan.

All of the talk about a better year for merchants could make it difficult for shoppers to find as many discounts as they have in the past.

"Compared to the last few years, Christmas won't be quite as promotional and cutthroat as it was," said Howard Ellenberg, who follows the industry for Johnson Redbook Service. "As far as the retailers go, that's good. They don't have to give things away. But there won't be as many bargains for consumers. They'll have to look a little harder."

That notion disturbs Mimma Spataro of Deer Park, who said at the Walt Whitman Mall last week that she probably won't spend as much this year. "Everything costs so much, and we have a lot of bills to pay."

But Carole Damico of Bethpage said she expects to increase her spending because "I saved a little more."

There is one wild card this year. Nassau and Suffolk Counties, following the lead of New York State, have decided to suspend for the week of Martin Luther King Jr.'s birthday - Jan. 18-24 - the sales tax on clothing and shoes for purchases up to $500. The legislation was intended to boost sales during what is generally the slowest month of the year for retailers. Some merchants fear the result will be fewer purchases during the holiday season, which many count on for roughly half their annual profits.

"It will be tricky," said Janine Nebons, general manager of the Tanger Factory Outlet Center. "Will consumers say, I'm going to hold off on buying this coat until January?' Or will there be a psychological high, with people saying, I've got the money now?' "

For the moment, retailers are content with the traffic they're seeing.

"People were asking me in September, Where is the Christmas merchandise?' " said Cynthia Bergmann, owner of Unusual Things Created By Your Neighbor, a gift store in Huntington. "That's a very good sign."

Look for Air Jordan Under the Tree

WANT TO KNOW what's hot for this holiday season? The long and short of it is Michael Jordan.

"Space Jam," the Warner Bros. comedy starring the NBA superstar and Bugs Bunny, has spun off some of the hottest-selling items of the season: the Talking Michael Jordan Doll; Triple Play, a collection of dolls, and a plethora of T-shirts and other apparel with the Jordan name splashed across it.

The other big Christmas movie expected to spin off toys, clothes and knickknacks is Disney's live-action remake of "101 Dalmatians," which is to hit theaters Wednesday, the day before Thanksgiving, at which point spotted-dog fever might spread across the land.

The video game business will be hot, too. Nintendo's Ultra 64, the latest of the home entertainment systems, went on sale a few weeks ago, and retailers are having a hard time keeping it in stock, toy industry analysts say.

There's plenty for older "kids," too.

Sports pagers are expected to be sell briskly. The wristwatch-size devices provide up-to-the-minute scores of professional football, basketball, hockey and baseball games.

Items for the home also are foreseen as big sellers, as they have been for several years, said Wendy Liebmann, president of WSL Strategic Retail in Manhattan.

More luxurious items, including fine cigars, caviar, chocolate, expensive jewelry and cosmetics, also will be popular. Liebmann sees these best sellers as having "a sense of the indulgent and a little bit of the wicked."

Yet other experts say religious books, music and videos will be strong, particularly among aging baby boomers searching for higher meaning in their lives.

Home satellite dishes and big-screen televisions probably will lead in consumer electronic sales. In apparel, retailers expect to sell a lot of leather coats, gloves, hats and shoes. While there are no really hot new designers offering a must-have dress or outfit, Calvin Klein and Donna Karan clothes are expected to top the lists. - Bernstein