From the archives: Despite forecasts, the Island got snowed.

This article was originally published in Newsday on Nov. 30, 1995

Proving once again that the experts can be as surprised as the rest of us, the season's first snowstorm arrived unannounced yesterday morning, dropping anywhere from a light coating to more than 4 inches across the Island.

It was an inauspicious start to a season that some prognosticators say looks to be more normal than last year's unusually mild winter. Forecasters, who had gone to bed Tuesday night predicting rain, had to explain why morning commuters were brushing snow off their cars before heading into slow-moving traffic.

The chief culprit, they said, was a cold front that dropped temperatures from a mid-60s record Tuesday afternoon to the mid-30s in less than 12 hours.

"It got cold a little quicker (than expected)," said Bob McElhearn, a National Weather Service meteorologist at Brookhaven National Laboratory in Upton. "It turned to snow a lot faster."

The heavy, wet snow was excellent for snowballs and snowmen, according to kids who frolicked in it. Forecasters said temperatures in the 20s last night would turn whatever snow and water was still on the ground to ice, but an emerging sun today is expected to push temperatures above freezing.

The early arrival of wintry weather - the Winter Solstice is Dec. 22 - sent some people scurrying to stores to buy snow shovels and rock salt, and prompted others to dig through closets for gloves and boots that got little use last season when there was just a half-foot of snow.

Anthony Cassells, who recently bought a house in Springfield Gardens, Queens, walked out of the Home Depot store in East Farmingdale yesterday afternoon with a blue Monster Mover snow shovel to fill in for the broom he had used hours earlier to clear his walk.

"I need a shovel," he said as he headed for his car. "I said, 'Let me get it now before the price goes up.' "

John Nelson, who works behind the counter at Long Island Power Equipment in St. James, said there were a number of people stopping in to price snow blowers, but the few inches of snow weren't enough to prompt many buyers.

But Nelson predicted that will change. "One more storm, and it will take care of it," he said.

It was a slow morning on the Long Island Rail Road with fewer than half the trains running on time yesterday morning, according to railroad spokesman Sam Zambuto. The delays, which ran up to 21 minutes, were caused by equipment and switch problems, but most were not weather-related, he said.

The relatively light snowfall didn't bother Lenny Lencina, 21, an attendant at a Getty gasoline station on Merrick Road in Merrick. "It's not too bad yet," he said as he swept out the slush.

More than anything, the snow provided a good warmup for the winter season, which, on average, produces about 29 inches of snow locally. Meteorologists consider the whole of December, January and February as the winter months. The National Weather Service said weather patterns are favoring a warmer than usual winter, but the outlook for rain and snow is unclear. "There are colder than normal waters over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean," said Jeffrey Schultz, a climatologist at the Northeast Regional Climate Center in upstate Ithaca. "Generally, that means less energy and less moisture is being put out into the atmosphere, so there's less of that coming this way."

But Pat Pagano, president of Metro Weather Service in Valley Stream, said the possibilities are so divergent - some signs point to a harsh winter, others to a mild one - that he's taking the middle road and predicting a "near normal" winter.

In Dublin, N.H., the editors of "The Old Farmer's Almanac" are predicting a mild and wet winter for the metropolitan area, according to managing editor Susan Peery.

Peery, who said the Almanac's forecasts are based on sunspot cycles and other weather phenomena, admitted that the publication was hoping for a comeback after blowing last year with a prediction of a snowy winter in the Northeast.

"It was a dud," Peery said. "You just start over every year. At this point of the winter, we're not wrong."

TIPS FOR DRIVING

With the first appearance of snow and ice this season, the Automobile Club of New York recommends the following tips to reduce the chances of a skidding accident:

-- Get the feel of the road when you start out. Accelerate gently to see if the wheels spin, then brake gently to see if they skid.

-- Avoid any sharp, sudden movement that could cause a skid. Don't speed, turn or brake sharply.

-- Allow plenty of distance between your car and the car ahead. It can take up to 10 times as far to stop on snow and ice as it takes on dry pavement.

-- If your car does begin to skid, stay cool and sound your horn to warn other drivers. Then, if in a rear-wheel-drive vehicle, ease off the accelerator and lightly pump the brakes while steering in the direction of the skid. If the front end is veering left, steer right and vice versa. In a front-wheel-drive vehicle, which is less likely to skid, lightly accelerate and gently turn in the direction of the skid. The same instructions apply to cars with antilock brakes, except drivers are advised not to pump the brakes.

Past Winters

The amount of snow that has fallen over the previous seven seasons on Long Island. Snowfall figures were measured at the Brookhaven National Laboratory.

SOURCE: Brookhaven National Laboratory
Total Snow
1988-89 17 inches
1989-90 26.5 inches
1990-91 17.5 inches
1991-92 16 inches
1992-93 27 inches
1993-94 55 inches
1994-95 6.5 inches
Yearly average 29.1 inches
First Snowfalls

Date Amount of snow
1988-89 Dec. 13-14 7 inches
1989-90 Nov. 22-23 7.5 inches
1990-91 Dec. 28 7 inches
1991-92 Dec. 6 2 inches
1992-93 Dec. 12 1 inch
1993-94 Dec. 11 2 inches
1994-95 Feb. 4 6 inches
1995-96 Nov. 29 4.5 inches