From the archives: Shadows of doubt ; groundhogs differ

This story was originally published in Newsday on February 3, 2002 

Long Island's two famous groundhogs turned in conflicting forecasts yesterday, leaving many wondering whether spring would come earlier this year, as Holtsville Hal predicted, or whether winter would hang on six more weeks, as Malverne Mel foretold.

Both four-legged forecasters predicted an early spring last Groundhog Day, so what changed? Did Mel's early rising signal something this year that Hal's later showing didn't?

Meanwhile, Punxsutawney Phil of Pennsylvania and Staten Island Chuck also gave mixed reports. Phil saw his shadow, foretelling six more weeks of winter. Chuck didn't, forecasting an early spring.

After a mostly spring-like week, winter returned in time for yesterday's big event. About 7:35 a.m. Malverne Mayor Tony Panzarella pushed through a crowd of more than 200 spectators, standing five or six deep, to get to Mel's pen. He lifted the wriggling rodent, who wore a red-white-and-blue bandana around his head, out of his cozy stump and held him to his ear.

"For starters, Malverne Mel says God bless America," said Panzarella, who donned a black top hat. "It's six more weeks of winter, folks."

Mel squirmed out of Panzarella's arms and plopped back onto a pile of hay in the pen.

After the ceremony, friends Vincent Gangone and John Phelan, both 6, of Malverne, said they would have been happy whether Mel predicted an early spring or longer winter.

"My fingers were crossed for both of them," John said between bites of a chocolate muffin.

Six-year-old Taylor Vaughn of Lakeview was rooting for a winter prediction and the possibility of more snow. However, her father, Alfred, said he'd prefer spring but wouldn't mind six more weeks of cold weather. "If it comes, it comes," he said.

About 10:15 in Holtsville, a record-setting crowd of about 100 people turned out for Hal's prediction at Harold H. Malkmes Wildlife and Ecology Education Center. It took some prodding to rouse the 4-year-old from his burrow. Naturalist Greg Drossel lifted Hal by the scruff of the neck. The crowd swarmed around them to get a better look as a quivering Hal flashed his four front teeth.

No shadow in sight.

Hal's prediction was the same as last year's, said Pat Strebel, Brookhaven Town's highway superintendent, who attended the event with other town officials. "Last year, he didn't see his shadow, and two days later we had a major blizzard," she said, laughing. "This year, we're expecting spring."

Ismael Olmeda, who watched with his wife, Nancy, and 5-year-old son, Ismael, said he could live with a few more weeks of winter.

"It's been spring all winter," he said. "We cannot complain if we get a little bit of frost and cold ..."

Malverne Mel, whose predictions in the past six years have been right five times, may have the edge next year when he gains a partner - Malverne Melissa - in matrimony and weather forecasting. However, some in Holtsville say he'll need it with rumors about his pedigree casting a shadow over his prognostication. (Some suspect Mel is a prairie dog, not a groundhog.)

"I'd have to say we have a real groundhog, and he's been right before," said Hal fan Timmi Nalepa, an educator at the Malkmes center. "He's had four years of predictions and three out of four he was right. That's pretty good."