Gridiron Guide: Week 2 NFL picks and fantasy take
Sam Bradford #8 of the St. Louis Rams passes against Philadelphia Eagles. (Sept. 11, 2011) Credit: Getty Images
JAGUARS (0-1) at JETS (1-0), 1 p.m.
Line: Jets by 9.5
Over/Under: 39, 1 p.m.
TV:: Ch. 2; Radio: ESPN 1050
I hope Gang Green sent Tony Romo one of those Edible arrangements. He gift-wrapped the Jets' season-opening win (but, alas, no cover). I think the Jets need to concentrate on seven letters this Sunday: Stop MJD. If the Jets do stop, or at least slow down, Jags RB Maurice Jones-Drew, they should win by double digits.
The pick: Jets
Fantasy take: Maurice Jones-Drew is the only Jaguar to play. Santonio Holmes is a great start.
RAMS (0-1) at GIANTS (0-1), 8:30 p.m. Monday
Line: Giants by 5.5
Over/Under: 43.5
TV: Ch. 9, ESPN; Radio: WFAN (660)
Maybe this should be called the Black & Blue game. These are two of the most banged-up teams in the NFL. The Giants' injuries are well-documented (add WR Hakeem Nicks to the list). The Rams lost RB Steven Jackson, WR Danny Amendola and later QB Sam Bradford to injuries last week. (Bradford will play). I think RB Cadillac Williams will gash the G-Men's decimated defense.
The pick: Rams
Fantasy take: Steven Jackson is expected to sit, so Cadillac Williams is an RB3. Hakeem Nicks is shaping up to be a game-time decision, so if you wait until Monday, make sure you have a player from this game to cover yourself.
MARQUEE MATCHUPS
CHARGERS (1-0) at PATRIOTS (1-0), 4:15 p.m.
Line: Patriots by 7
Over/Under: 53.5
TV: Ch. 2
Not sure what was more dizzying Monday night, Tom Brady's new Uggs commercial or the way he sliced up Miami's defense? I hope the Chargers took good notes, and not on the commercial. San Diego is solid as a road underdog (18-6-3 ATS in its last 27 games as a road underdog), but I think more of Brady and Bill Belichick.
The pick: Patriots
Fantasy take: Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski are both starting tight ends in fantasy. Vincent Jackson will bounce back after a disappointing Week 1.
EAGLES (1-0) at FALCONS (0-1), 8:20 p.m. Sunday
Line: Eagles by 2.5
Over/Under: 49.5
TV: Ch. 4; Radio: WFAN (660)
This is Michael Vick's second trip to Atlanta, but his first time as the Eagles starter and undisputed leader. Vick, who spent six seasons in Atlanta, hasn't looked sharp since the middle of last season. A suspect O-line in front of him hasn't helped. Atlanta also got crushed in Philly last season. Falcons QB and Philly native Matt Ryan is 20-2 lifetime at home.
The pick: Falcons
Fantasy take: Look for Jeremy Maclin to be more involved.
1 P.M. GAMES
SEAHAWKS (0-1) at STEELERS (0-1)
Line: Steelers by 14.5
Over/Under: 40
A rematch of Super Bowl XL won by Pittsburgh. Interestingly, referee Bill Leavy, who officiated the big game and later apologized for making a few bad calls, will ref this game, too. Sorry Seattle fans. It won't matter who officiates (or if there are refs at all). The Steelers will not be embarrassed two straight weeks.
The pick: Steelers
Fantasy take: Ben Roethlisberger and Rashard Mendenhall will bounce back. The Seahawks will continue to be irrelevant.
BEARS (1-0) at SAINTS (0-1)
Line: Saints by 7
Over/Under: 47
I can't see the Saints dropping to the dreaded 0-2. However, I think the Bears will keep it close. Plus, Saints are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 against NFC foes.
The pick: Bears
Fantasy take: Jay Cutler will take a step up in the second year in Mike Martz’s offense. Play Lance Moore if he plays.
RAVENS (1-0) at TITANS (0-1)
Line: Ravens by 6
Over/Under: 38
One game a season doesn't make, but is there a new bully in the AFC? It could be the Ravens, who pounded the Steelers in Week 1. The Titans are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games vs. teams with a winning record.
The pick: Ravens -- BEST BET
Fantasy take: If Chris Johnson has another bad week, buy low.
BUCS (0-1) at VIKINGS (0-1)
Line: Vikings by 3
Over/Under: 40.5
In a week when 14 QBs threw for 300 or more yards, Vikings QB Donovan McNabb threw for a grand total of (drumroll, please) 39 yards. Thirty-nine! I owe Redskins coach Mike Shanahan a big apology. Bucs (13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 road games) bounce back here.
The pick: Bucs
Fantasy take: LeGarrette Blount had just five carries last week because the Bucs were playing from behind. When the game is close, he will be more involved.
CHIEFS (0-1) at LIONS (1-0)
Line: Lions by 8
Over/Under: 45
This line jumped out at me right away. The public money is all over the Lions, and Detroit cashed in with a big Week 1 win in Tampa Bay. The ATS numbers favor Detroit (6-0 ATS last six games overall), but the line is too big for my liking.
The pick: Chiefs
Fantasy take: Matthew Stafford is a must-start, and if you have him paired with an elite QB, make a trade. Outside of Jamaal Charles, stay away from Chiefs players.
RAIDERS (1-0) at BILLS (1-0)
Line: Bills by 3.5
Over/Under: 42.5
Guess which QB leads the NFL in QB rating? Would you believe it's the Bills' Ryan Fitzpatrick (133.0)? I know it's only one game, but, c'mon. The Raiders were impressive in Denver on Monday night, but usually don't travel well to the East Coast for 1 p.m. games.
The pick: Bills
Fantasy take: Darren McFadden is the only Raider worth using, while Ryan Fitzpatrick has another good matchup.
CARDINALS (1-0) at REDSKINS (1-0)
Line: Redskins by 4
Over/Under: 44.5
I had some "buyers remorse" as soon as I sent in my Week 1 picks, including taking the G-Men over Washington. Bad pick by me. The Cardinals defense looked like a JV squad against Carolina last week.
The pick: Redskins
Fantasy take: Rex Grossman is a good play against an inept defense. Tim Hightower will be pumped to face his former team.
PACKERS (1-0) at PANTHERS (0-1)
Line: Packers by 10
Over/Under: 46.5
Everyone was so impressed with Panthers QB Cam Newton's rookie-debut record 422 yards in Week 1. But remember the defense he was facing, people. Still, I'm curious to see how Newton does against the defending Super Bowl champs. Probably not as well.
The pick: Packers
Fantasy take: Cam Newton is a backup QB with upside but has a tough matchup here. The good news is he will get the ball to Steve Smith. James Starks should exploit the Panthers defense.
BROWNS (0-1) at COLTS (0-1)
Line: Browns by 2.5
Over/Under: 39.5
I guess taking Cleveland is the lesser of two evils here.
The pick: Browns
Fantasy take: Peyton Hillis is in store for a big game against a Colts defense without two starting linebackers. Reggie Wayne is a WR2 with Kerry Collins.
LATE GAMES
COWBOYS (0-1) at 49ERS (1-0), 4:05 p.m.
Line: Cowboys by 3
Over/Under: 42.5
TV: Ch. 5
Gee, I wish Cowboys owner Jerry Jones was MY boss. When asked how QB Tony Romo played against the Jets, Jones quipped "outstanding." I'm sorry, Mr. Jones, did you see Romo's fourth quarter, including his goal-line fumble and late INT? As a kid, this was one of my favorite rivalry games. How the mighty have fallen.
The pick: Cowboys
Fantasy take: If you stream defenses, use the Cowboys.
BENGALS (1-0) at BRONCOS (0-1), 4:15 p.m.
Line: Bengals by 4.5
Over/Under: 40
The "We Want Tebow" chants started during Denver's loss to Oakland Monday night. Now, fans are using their money to put up a pair of pro-Tim Tebow billboards in Denver. I thought Mile High City fans were smarter than that. Denver is 16-34-3 ATS in their last 53 games as a home favorite. The chants will get louder.
The pick: Bengals
Fantasy take: Knowshon Moreno is hurt already and shouldn’t be used even if he plays. If he sits, Willis McGahee gets a boost. Cedric Benson will get another big workload.
TEXANS (1-0) at DOLPHINS (0-1), 4:15 p.m.
Line: Texans by 3
Over/Under: 48
Radio: WFAN (660)
I feel bad for Dolphins cornerback Benny Sapp (love the last name). Last week, he agreed to a $300,000 pay cut. Monday, he gets torched a handful of times, including being the victim on the Brady-to-Welker 99-yard TD pass. Finally, he gets cut on Tuesday. Well, at least he'll still get paid his $1.6-million contract.
The pick: Texans
Fantasy take: Play Arian Foster if he starts. While Reggie Bush is healthy and getting 20 touches, he’s a good play in PPR leagues, but sell high.
LAST WEEK'S RECORDS:
John Boell: 6-8-2 (Best bet 1-0)
Bob Glauber: 5-9-2 (0-0-1)
Tom Rock: 7-7-2 (0-0-1)
Roderick Boone: 6-8-2 (0-1)
Sarra Sounds Off, Ep. 25: Wrestling and hockey state championships On the latest episode of "Sarra Sounds Off," Gregg Sarra and Matt Lindsay recap all the state wrestling action from Albany this past weekend, plus Jared Valluzzi has the ice hockey championship results from Binghamton.
