Gridiron Guide Week 7 picks: Cowboys get win, cover vs. Giants

GIANTS (3-3) at COWBOYS (5-1), 4:25 p.m.

Cowboys by 6 1/2; O/U: 48

TV: Ch. 5; Radio: WFAN (660. 101.9)

Look, this Philadelphia native isn't going to gloat about the Eagles' win over the Giants. (Heck, I took the underdog G-Men in what I expected to be a tight NFC East game.) I wonder how the 105th all-time meeting between these two rivals will go. In one corner, you have the surprising Cowboys, who did what few teams do: Win in Seattle. Impressive! In the other corner, there's the humbled Giants, who lost one of their leaders in Victor Cruz. I'm not sure how Big Blue responds. The Giants allowed 203 yards rushing to what had been an anemic Philly rushing attack. The challenge is even bigger vs. Dallas' DeMarco Murray, who leads the NFL in rushing yards (785), attempts (159) and TDs (6). Despite some numbers that lean toward taking the Giants -- 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in last five games in Dallas; road team is 6-2 ATS in last eight meetings; underdog has covered seven of last 10 times -- it's a bad spot for Big Blue.

The pick: Cowboys

BENGALS (3-1-1)

at COLTS (4-2)

Colts by 3; O/U: 49 1/2

TV: Ch. 2

Are these two AFC contenders or pretenders? I think we'll find out a lot here. Colts have won (and covered) four straight after 0-2 start. Bengals are 0-1-1 after 3-0 start. Cincy has major issues at wideout: Marvin Jones (ankle) is on the IR, and A.J. Green reportedly will miss a second straight game. Who is Andy Dalton going to pass to, Cris Collinsworth? What about a return for Chad Johnson, now in the CFL? Bengals are 3-7-1 ATS in last 11 on the road, and Colts are 17-5 ATS last 22 home games.

The pick: Colts

SEAHAWKS (3-2)

at RAMS (1-4)

Seahawks by 7; O/U: 43 1/2

The Rams have no one to blame but themselves for their loss last Monday night. How do coaches like Jeff Fisher and Gregg Williams not play a prevent defense late in the first half with a 14-3 lead? That 80-yard TD buoyed Niners. Seattle, 12-3 ATS in last 15 road games, should return to a more balanced attack (see: run Marshawn Lynch more) and bounce back here after rare loss at home.

The pick: Seahawks

PANTHERS (3-2-1)

at PACKERS (4-2)

Packers by 7; O/U: 49

TV: Ch. 5

I marvel whenever I watch Cam Newton. The Panthers QB is the only player in NFL history with at least 250 passing yards, 2 TD passes, 100 rushing yards and a rushing TD in a single game. He did it last week, and also in 2012. The Packers have NFL-bests of 13 takeaways and a plus-9 turnover margin, but are 2-5-1 ATS in last eight home games. If Geno Smith can go into Lambeau and almost win, can't Cam? Worth a shot.

The pick: Panthers

SAINTS (2-3) at LIONS (4-2)

Lions by 3; O/U: 49

Radio: ESPN (98.7)

For stat geeks, this should be a fun one: the Saints' No. 2-ranked offense vs. the Lions' NFL-best defense. But here are some stats that matter to me: The Saints are an NFC-worst 1-4 ATS and have a minus-8 turnover margin. Plus, they're 2-9 ATS in last 11 road games.

The pick: Lions

FALCONS (2-4)

at RAVENS (4-2)

Ravens by 7; O/U: 49 1/2

Call this "The 2008 Draft Bowl". Atlanta's Matt Ryan (No. 3 overall) and Baltimore's Joe Flacco (No. 18) were the lone QBs taken in the first round that year. The Ravens are hot and the Falcons are cold, but I'll back the more desperate team, especially getting points.

The pick: Falcons

TITANS (2-4)

at REDSKINS (1-5)

Redskins by 5 1/2; O/U: 46

The Redskins have an NFC-worst minus-9 turnover margin. The Titans have an NFL-worst 1-5 ATS record. Are you excited for this game, now? Me neither!

The pick: Titans

DOLPHINS (2-3)

at BEARS (3-3)

Bears by 3 1/2; O/U: 48

Chicago is coming off a solid road win at Atlanta, but is 1-8-1 ATS at home under coach Marc Trestman. The Dolphins watched Aaron Rodgers pull a Dan Marino (fake spike) and lose a heartbreaker to the Packers. They'll have their hands full with Jay Cutler & Co, too.

The pick: Bears

BROWNS (3-2)

at JAGUARS (0-6)

Browns by 5 1/2; O/U: 45

Cleveland is the feel-good story of the season, and with the Jags, Raiders and Bucs up next, they could be 6-2. One of the reasons for its success is that it has only lost the ball twice all season. The Jags are a league-worst 1-5 ATS.

The pick: Browns

VIKINGS (2-4) at BILLS (3-3)

Bills by 5 1/2; O/U: 42 1/2

Two of the better bounce-back teams: Vikings are 6-2 ATS in last eight following a loss; Bills are 10-4 ATS off a loss. Minnesota is 31st in NFL, allowing 22 sacks. Bills' "D" is tied for second with 19 sacks.

The pick: Bills

CHIEFS (2-3) at

CHARGERS (5-1),

4:05 p.m.

Chargers by 4; O/U: 45

The Chargers (and the Colts) have the NFL's best ATS record (5-1) and the Bolts have only turned the ball over twice all season. The Chiefs are coming off a bye, which usually equals success for coach Andy Reid: He's 13-3 all-time after a bye. Finally, Kansas City is 9-3 ATS in last 12 roadies.

The pick: Chiefs

CARDINALS (4-1)

at RAIDERS (0-5), 4:25 p.m.

Cardinals by 3 1/2; O/U: 441/2

The Raiders probably should've beaten the Chargers last week, but it's tough not to back the Cards, who boast a plus-8 turnover margin and 4-1-1 ATS mark in last six on the road.

The pick: Cardinals

49ERS (4-2) at

BRONCOS (4-1), 8:30 p.m.

Broncos by 6 1/2; O/U: 50

TV: Ch. 4; Radio: WFAN (660, 101.9, joined in progress)

The Broncos are a pedestrian 7-5 ATS as favorites of eight or fewer points the last two seasons with Peyton Manning. Also, Denver is 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games. I'm a bit uneasy with the Niners in back-to-back road games on a short week, but San Fran is 13-5-2 ATS in last 20 roadies. Go gently here.

The pick: 49ers

TEXANS (3-3)

at STEELERS (3-3), 8:30 p.m.

Steelers by 3 1/2; O/U: 44 1/2

TV: ESPN

Radio: WFAN (660, 101.9)

I was shocked the Steelers got waxed by the Browns last week. Pittsburgh is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games as favorites of four or fewer points. The Texans should keep this close. Houston DE J.J. Watt should get a rushing attempt near the goal line -- one of the only ways he hasn't scored yet. Watt can't this guy do?! MVP?

The pick: Texans

STAFF PICKS

JOHN BOELL 50-39-1, 3-3 best bets

Last week: 9-6

Cowboys Colts Seahawks (BB) Panthers

Lions Falcons Titans Bears

Browns Bills Chiefs

Cardinals 49ers Texans

BOB GLAUBER 43-46-1, 1-5

Last week: 8-7

Giants Colts (BB) Seahawks Packers

Lions Ravens Redskins Bears

Jaguars Bills Chiefs

Cardinals 49ers Steelers

TOM ROCK 46-43-1, 3-3

Last week: 10-5

Cowboys Colts Seahawks Packers

Saints Ravens Titans Bears

Browns (BB) Bills Chargers

Raiders Broncos Texans

KIMBERLEY A. MARTIN 49-40-1, 1-5

Last week: 9-6

Cowboys Colts Seahawks Packers

Lions Falcons Redskins Bears

Jaguars Bills Chargers

Raiders Broncos (BB) Steelers