LIA's Kamer: Economy 'at stall speed'
Pearl Kamer, the chief economist for the Long Island Association. (Nov. 10, 2011) Credit: Newsday, 2011 / Audrey C. Tiernan
When Long Island Association economist Pearl Kamer rose to speak before a group of bankers Thursday, she opened with a warning: "As I walked in, people said to me, 'Oh you have good news for us.' Well, it is what it is. Don't hold your breath."
Kamer delivered a stomach-clutching talk before about 100 bankers at the Milleridge Inn in Jericho that pulled no punches about the local and national economy, which she said has been operating "at stall speed" even two years after the current recovery started. Some points:
Since April, the United States has added an average of 72,000 jobs a month, significantly slower than the 161,000 jobs added monthly in the prior seven months.
It seems unlikely that Long Island retailers will match last year's fourth-quarter sales-tax gain of 7.1 percent in this year's fourth quarter, because 2010's gain was fueled in part by record year-end Wall Street bonuses. "These bonuses may not be forthcoming this year," Kamer said.
The annual real income of the median U.S. household fell from $55,000 in December 2007 to $49,909 in June 2011, a 10 percent decline. "This means that the income gains generated by the economic boom of the past decade have been completely erased," Kamer said.
Long Island, home of the nation's first suburb, is now facing many of the problems associated with cities. The federal poverty standard nationwide is $21,200 for a family of four. The Island's official poverty rate -- 5.9 percent in Nassau and 6.2 percent in Suffolk -- is relatively low, but, said Kamer, "Given Long Island's disproportionately high living costs, the real poverty rate [here] is probably about 20 percent."
The Island must make better use of its research and educational institutions to create jobs, Kamer said, as well as work on more affordable housing to keep young people here.
Was she too hard-hitting? No, Kamer said after her talk. The local and national economy is the worst she has seen it in "30 or 40 years."
Michael Vittorio, president of Glen Head-based First National Bank, said Kamer had indeed delivered "negative news, [but] it's reality. We have to deal with reality in the business world."
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