Major Emmy picks from critic Verne Gay

Best comedy series "The Big Bang Theory" (CBS)

"Louie" (FX)

"Modern Family" (ABC)

"Orange Is the New Black" (Netflix)

"Silicon Valley" (HBO)

"Veep" (HBO)

Should win "Veep," but broadcast TV has owned this category almost forever; hard to believe that will change.

Will win Heavily favored "Modern Family" with its fifth win in a row.

Best drama series

"Breaking Bad" (AMC)

"Downton Abbey" (PBS)

"Game of Thrones" (HBO)

"House of Cards" (Netflix)

"Mad Men" (AMC)

"True Detective" (HBO)

Should win "Breaking Bad." "Game of Thrones" is equally spectacular, but its Emmy win probably still lies in the future.

Will win "Breaking Bad." The final season was excellent, so Emmy voters should give the classic a proper farewell.

Best actress/comedy

Lena Dunham, "Girls" (HBO)

Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie" (Showtime)

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "Veep" (HBO)

Melissa McCarthy, "Mike & Molly" (CBS)

Amy Poehler, "Parks and Recreation" (NBC)

Taylor Schilling, "Orange Is the New Black" (Netflix)

Should win Louis-Dreyfus. Hands down -- even in this superlative 2014 best actress pack.

Will win Louis-Dreyfus. The Emmys can justify not giving "Veep" a best-comedy award by giving a best actress one to the lead.

Best actor/comedy

Louis C.K., "Louie" (FX)

Don Cheadle, "House of Lies" (Showtime)

Ricky Gervais, "Derek" (Netflix)

Matt LeBlanc, "Episodes" (Showtime)

William H. Macy, "Shameless" (Showtime)

Jim Parsons, "The Big Bang Theory" (CBS)

Should win Macy. Just because he's a great actor and deserves at long last major Emmy love (and because enough already with Parsons).

Will win Parsons. Don't look too hard for a surprise upset, even if lead actor/comedy may be the place for it.

Best actor/drama

Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" (AMC)

Jeff Daniels, "The Newsroom" (HBO)

Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" (AMC)

Woody Harrelson, "True Detective" (HBO)

Matthew McConaughey, "True Detective" (HBO)

Kevin Spacey, "House of Cards" (Netflix)

Should win Cranston. (Yes, Hamm deserves to win, too, but there's time.)

Will win McConaughey. This category pretty much belongs to "True Detective," which likely won't win best drama, but almost certainly this, capping the winner's so-called "McConaissance."

Best actress/drama

Lizzy Caplan, "Masters of Sex" (Showtime)

Claire Danes, "Homeland" (Showtime)

Michelle Dockery, "Downton Abbey" (PBS)

Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife" (CBS)

Kerry Washington, "Scandal" (ABC)

Robin Wright, "House of Cards" (Netflix)

Should win Wright. A wonder as Second Lady Claire "MacBeth" Underwood.

Will win Danes. Sometimes when confronted with a particularly difficult choice, voters fall back on the choice of least resistance: last year's winner!