Big economic impact if shutdown goes on

The economic effects of a government shutdown could be significant if the impasse continues for several weeks, some economists say.

The impact would depend on the closure's duration and on whether furloughed federal employees were eventually paid for their time out of work, as they were after the last shutdown, 15 years ago. If the estimated 800,000 workers did not receive back pay, the damage would be compounded as many families pulled back on spending, economists said.

Initially, however, if the government closes today, the effects are expected to be relatively minor, felt largely by tourists shut out of such attractions as the Smithsonian museums, the National Zoo and the national parks -- and by the hotels and restaurants that depend on them.

"If it's shorter than a week, the economic impact is no worse than a snowstorm," said Stephen Fuller, director of the Center for Regional Analysis. "If it lasts longer, it will have negative consequences on the economy and not all of the losses will be recovered."

At a town-hall meeting near Philadelphia on Wednesday, President Barack Obama warned that the uncertainty of a shutdown could slow the economic recovery.

"Companies don't like uncertainty, and if they start seeing that suddenly we may have a shutdown of our government, that could halt momentum right when we need to build it up -- all because of politics," Obama said.

This week, hoteliers, restaurateurs and others who depend on the tourist trade at national museums and parks were bracing for a slowdown.

In a typical April day, about 800,000 people visit one of the 394 national park sites across the country. Tourists spend about $32 million a day in the communities outside the parks, National Park Service spokesman David Barna said.

"The bigger impact is in those gateway communities, like West Yellowstone or Gatlinburg, Tennessee -- in many communities they are the economic engine," said Barna.

The broader effects of a shutdown would set in Monday, after the weekend, when an estimated 800,000 federal workers across the country would stay home from work. This would, in turn, disrupt countless contractors and other businesses that rely on the federal government.

If the shutdown dragged on, the effect on employment would be felt beyond the many furloughed government workers. "Don't assume that a two-week shutdown will not have an enormous impact," said Stan Soloway, president of the Professional Services Council, an industry association representing government contractors. "This is people-driven. If you are not getting reimbursed, even as a large company, there is only a short period where you can keep people on."