5 things to watch for in Tuesday's Democratic primaries

WASHINGTON — Now that it’s effectively a two-man contest for the Democratic presidential nomination — Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are in a race to rack up the most delegates, starting with Tuesday’s five-state primary.

Michigan will be the main prize on March 10, with 174 of the 417 delegates in play. Washington State will be close behind with 108 delegates. Sanders won both states four years ago as he battled Hillary Clinton for the nomination, but both could be competitive this year.

“Biden is riding this wave of momentum that could benefit him significantly in Michigan, particularly given his issue stances and the political and social and demographic makeup of Michigan,” said Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University.

Whoever wins 1,991 delegates clinches the nomination. Biden leads with 610 delegates to 505 for Sanders as of Saturday, according to New York State Democratic Committee Chairman Jay Jacobs, who predicts that Biden will begin a march to a clear victory by the July nominating convention.

But Koning warned, “The narrative has certainly shifted, but it's still a pretty close race. And I think if we’ve learned anything from 2016, it’s recognizing the uncertainty in all of the polling leading up to these kind of moments.”

The other Democratic contests include Missouri’s primary for 78 delegates, Mississippi’s primary for 41 delegates and North Dakota’s caucuses, which in practice resemble a primary, for 18 delegates. Biden is favored in Mississippi and Missouri. Sanders won North Dakota in 2016.

Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) is still running, but has won few votes and one delegate, according to Jacobs' count.

Here are five things to watch for:

Will Michigan buoy Sanders again?

Four years ago, Sanders squeaked out a 50.2 percent victory in Michigan, giving him momentum to keep his campaign going. He won big among voters under 40 years old, white men and independents. This year, he’s counting on Michigan again. Since Friday, he has campaigned across the state as Biden spent time in Missouri and Mississippi, letting Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) served as his surrogate in Michigan. But Biden will appear in Detroit and Grand Rapids on Monday. Michigan, said Matt Grossman, director of Michigan State University’s Institute for Public Policy and Social Research, will be seen “as a barometer of support” for Sanders and “as a place where he'll need to make a comeback.”

Will Sanders win Washington’s popular vote?

A change in Washington State’s selection of delegates, from a caucus system with a “beauty pageant” vote to a mail-in ballot primary, could affect who wins the state. Jacobs believes it is possible Sanders will win again, as he did four years ago in the caucus even though Clinton won the statewide vote. The most recent poll, taken three weeks ago, shows Sanders up by six points. “You would expect him to do better in the West,” said Grossman. “On the other hand, it was a caucus instead of a primary last time. He’s not going to do as well as he did in the caucus.”

Will Warren weigh in?

Both Sanders and Biden covet an endorsement from Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who dropped out of the race Thursday. Warren campaigned in the left lane along with Sanders, and she drew support among white college-educated women. Warren could boost Sanders, yet she could also seek to unify the party behind Biden, or choose not to endorse either of them. Whatever she does, her supporters may not follow her. An Ipsos/Reuters Poll conducted on the two days after Super Tuesday tested how registered Democrats would react if their first choice quit. Among Warren backers, the poll found, 38 percent would vote for Sanders, 30 percent for Biden and 20 percent for Gabbard.

Will negative Sanders ads slow Biden?

The day after Super Tuesday, Sanders offered a stark choice: “Which side are you on?” While promising no personal attacks, Sanders began airing three ads critical of Biden, and criticized Biden for his vote for the Iraq War as well as past statements on cutting Social Security and Medicare. Grossman said that in his sudden turnaround, Biden hasn't faced a barrage of negative attacks. With the end of the multicandidate race, he said, “You're going to see more direct combat.” So far, Grossman added, “He hasn't necessarily shown that he can respond well to attacks.” Jacobs said Sanders’ negative ads will backfire. But most research, Koning said, shows they’ll work.

Will endorsements make a difference?

Sanders enjoys strong support among liberal leaders, but Biden has reaped a sheaf of endorsements. Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) and nine members of the U.S. House, including well-known Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), came out for Sanders. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) backs him in Michigan and Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) is for him in Washington. But 10 U.S. senators and 75 U.S. House members have endorsed Biden. In Michigan, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist — the first black to hold that position — Detroit’s mayor and three members of Congress endorsed Biden. “We see endorsements also still matter,” said Grossman. He cited “the just amazing turnaround in Minnesota” where Biden beat Sanders in the Tuesday primary despite Sabder's big lead in pre-primary polls. “It really does look like the Klobuchar endorsement made a big difference,” Grossman said.