Stakes raised in race for Weiner seat

WASHINGTON -- In just the past week, the contest to replace Rep. Anthony Weiner has jumped from a little-watched local campaign to a high-stakes contest with the sagging popularity of President Barack Obama on the line, political leaders and analysts said.

Although the outcome of the special election Tuesday won't change the balance of power in Washington, it will represent one more assessment of Obama and his policies, said Jay Jacobs, chairman of the Nassau County and New York State Democratic committees.

"Any time you have a special election on a congressional level, the national issues are going to be in play," he said. "That includes the president."

Most observers have called the 9th Congressional District race close, but a Siena Poll on Friday surprised many in New York and in Washington when it found Republican businessman Bob Turner leading Democratic Assemb. David Weprin, 50 percent to 44 percent.

While that lead falls within the survey's plus-or-minus 3.3 percentage point margin of error, the prospect of a Weprin loss worries Democrats, said Larry Sabato, director of University of Virginia's Center on Politics. "They know it would be a black eye," he said.

In the past week, national political figures on both sides, including House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) and Democratic National Party chairwoman Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.), have poured money into the two campaigns.

But Democrats are doing more. The House Democrats' campaign committee is running television ads. An outside group, the House Majority PAC, has spent nearly $50,000 on direct mail to boost Weprin and is expected to spend more on TV ads, records show.

"The problem for Democrats is that you don't want to [hear] the buzz, that the president is weak and if the president were strong this district wouldn't have been won by a Republican," said Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of The Rothenberg Political Report, a nonpartisan political newsletter.

Democrats need a win Tuesday, but for Republicans it's a win even if they lose, he said.

"There is no downside for Republicans. None," Rothenberg said. "This is a district they should not be so competitive in."

Democrats hold a 3-to-1 edge in voter registration, and Turner would be the first Republican to represent the district's swath of Brooklyn and Queens in eight decades if he won.

From the start, Turner has portrayed the election as a referendum on Obama's policies, especially on Israel, a top issue to many voters in the district.

Weprin has sought to tie Turner to national Republican positions, especially on plans to fundamentally change Medicare and Social Security.

But the Siena poll found little good news for Obama. He won the district with 55 percent of the vote in 2008, but the poll found 54 percent there now hold an unfavorable view of him.