5 things to watch for in Super Tuesday's vote

WASHINGTON — A third of the delegates needed to clinch the Democratic nomination for president are up for grabs as voters in 14 states cast ballots for their top choices on Super Tuesday, a make-or-break contest for all candidates still running.

All eyes will be on the performance of Sen. Bernie Sanders, the Vermont Democratic socialist who is the frontrunner after winning 45 delegates in the first three contests, prompting cheers from his left-leaning supporters but raising fears among some moderates.

“What is at stake is whether the party will begin to believe that Sanders is inevitable, or whether they will believe that there’s a real battle for the nomination,” said Matt Bennett, executive vice president for public affairs at Third Way, a moderate Democratic think tank.

“Will it clarify that there is only one viable Sanders alternative,” he said, noting there are now five or six such candidates, “and will Super Tuesday play the kind of decisive role in getting us there?”

Top among those alternatives are former Vice President Joe Biden, who won big Saturday in South Carolina, his first primary victory,Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and billionaire and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg in his first contests.

No one expects the primaries to determine the Democratic presidential nominee because delegates will be divided proportionally among candidates in each of the states. But those contests could diminish or even crush the chances of some of the contenders.

“Super Tuesday is about winning or losing,” said Robert Zimmerman, a Democratic national committeeman from Long Island who calls the primaries an important reality check. “You get points on the board, or you don’t.”

Here are five things to watch for on Super Tuesday.

Will Sanders surge?

Sanders sits at or near the top in polls taken in the big four states — California, Texas, North Carolina and Virginia — as well as in several smaller states. He is expected to reap plenty of delegates. But Bennett, who opposes Sanders' candidacy, asks, “Is Sanders doing what he alleges that his candidacy does, which is increasing turnout among low propensity voters or ... new voters?” An academic paper and a New York Times analysis found Sanders hasn’t done that so far this year. Yet entrance polls for the Nevada caucuses also show Sanders won two-thirds of the youth and half the Latino vote. That could portend a shift to Sanders in Texas and other states, said Mike Hersh of the Progressive Democrats of America, which supports Sanders. “Something to watch,” he said, “is if Bernie’s magic in Nevada is going to be translatable to other states.”

Will Biden bounce back?

Biden underperformed in the first three contests, trailing Sanders and picking up just 15 delegates. But Hersh noted the affection many Democrats have for Biden and said, “It’s too early for anybody to count Vice President Biden out.” Biden got a needed boost with a win in South Carolina, which could forecast he’ll win Tuesday in Alabama, North Carolina and other southern states. “The Democratic electorates are similar: they're heavily African American and they tend to vote like South Carolina,” Bennett said. The black vote could also help him in Texas, where a University of Houston Hobby School of Public Policy poll found Biden and Sanders virtually tied. Renee Cross, the school’s senior director, said that split resulted “primarily due to the African American vote going to Biden and the Latino vote going to Sanders.”

Will Bloomberg bloom?

Bloomberg, the self-funding billionaire and former Republican, will face voters Tuesday for the first time in his bid to become the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate. It will be a major test of whether his more than $400 million dollars of wall-to-wall advertising overcomes his rivals' attacks and his uneven performance in the recent debates. After Biden’s lackluster start, Bloomberg jumped into the race to become the Sanders alternative. “Biden’s reputation and his affection within the party will be tested by Bloomberg spending,” Hersh said. Bloomberg’s ubiquitous ads have helped him rise in the polls in Arkansas, Maine, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Texas, Utah and Virginia. “Bloomberg has a lot of money and he's hiring a lot of people,” Hersh said. “But Bloomberg has very few volunteers. He has no donors. And people who donate to the campaign tend to be very much more ardent about that campaign.”

Will Klobuchar and Warren win at home?

To win as a presidential candidate nationally, candidates are expected to win their home states. But Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota find themselves facing potential losses at home. Sanders, who leads led Warren by eight points in Massachusetts in Friday’s WBUR poll, aims to deliver a knockout blow to his only rival in the left lane of the Democratic primaries by campaigning in Springfield and Boston Friday and Saturday. And to rob Klobuchar of the one primary she counted on winning for sure, Sanders will rev up his loyal base in St. Paul, Minnesota the night before Super Tuesday. A week ago, he trailed Klobuchar by 6 points in a local poll.

Will ‘also rans’ quit?

Will ‘Also Rans’ Quit?

A tough decision looms for the candidates that voters leave behind Tuesday: Should they keep campaigning or drop out? After disappointing finishes in South Carolina, wealthy climate activist Tom Steyer and former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg already have suspended their campaigns. Klobuchar and Warren could be faced with a similar decision if they don’t win enough delegates to be considered contenders and their fundraising stalls. But money won’t be an issue for billionaire Bloomberg or Sanders, who has an expansive small-donor money machine. Still, some members of the Democratic establishment will pressure candidates who get little support Tuesday to step aside so an alternative to Sanders can emerge and the party can avoid a brokered convention. “After Super Tuesday, candidates have to really examine what role they can play in uniting the Democratic Party,” Zimmerman said, “because our nation is facing the greatest threat to the Constitution since the Civil War.”

A tough decision looms for the candidates who voters leave behind Tuesday: Should they keep campaigning or drop out? Most will want to stay in the race. Pete Buttigieg, the 38-year-old former mayor of South Bend and the first openly gay presidential candidate who won the New Hampshire primary and came in second in Iowa, ended his quest Sunday.  Wealthy climate activist Tom Steyer dropped out after a disappointing finish in South Carolina despite spending nearly $200 million on his campaign. The usual reason to quit — a shortage of money — could be a question for Klobuchar and Warren should they fall flat on Tuesday. But money won’t be an issue for Bloomberg. And Sanders has an expansive small-donor money machine. Still, some members of the Democratic establishment will pressure moderate candidates who get little support Tuesday to step aside so an alternative to Sanders can emerge and the party can avoid a brokered convention. “After Super Tuesday, candidates have to really examine what role they can play in uniting the Democratic Party,” Zimmerman said, “because our nation is facing the greatest threat to our constitution since the Civil War.”