U.S. poverty rate approaches record levels

WASHINGTON -- The ranks of America's poor are on track to climb to levels unseen in nearly half a century, erasing gains from the 1960s war on poverty amid a weak economy and fraying government safety net.

Census figures for 2011 will be released weeks ahead of the November election.

The Associated Press surveyed more than a dozen economists, think tanks and academics, nonpartisan and with liberal or conservative leanings, and found a broad consensus: The official poverty rate will rise from 15.1 percent in 2010, climbing as high as 15.7 percent. Several predicted a more modest gain, but even a 0.1 percentage-point increase would put poverty at the highest level since 1965.

Poverty is spreading across many groups, from underemployed workers and suburban families to the poorest poor. Discouraged workers are giving up on the job market, leaving them vulnerable as unemployment aid begins to run out.

"I grew up going to Hawaii every summer. Now I'm here, applying for assistance because it's hard to make ends meet," said Laura Fritz, 27, of Wheat Ridge, Colo., describing her slide from affluence to poverty as she filled out aid forms at a county center. Fritz says she grew up in a wealthy family in the Denver suburb of Highlands Ranch, but fortunes turned after her parents lost a significant amount of money in the housing bust. Now she's on disability, with an infant daughter and a boyfriend who can't find work as a landscaper.

Predictions for 2011 are based on separate AP interviews, supplemented with research on suburban poverty from Alan Berube of the Brookings Institution and an analysis of federal spending by the Congressional Research Service and Elise Gould of the Economic Policy Institute.

The analysts' estimates suggest that 47 million people in the United States, or 1 in 6, were poor last year. An increase of one-tenth of a percentage point to 15.2 percent would tie the 1983 rate, the highest since 1965.

While the unemployment rate improved from 9.6 percent in 2010 to 8.9 percent in 2011, the employment to people ratio was largely unchanged, meaning many discouraged workers simply stopped looking for work. Food stamp rolls, another indicator of poverty, also grew.

Demographers also say:

Poverty will remain above the pre-recession level of 12.5 percent for many more years. Several said peak poverty levels -- 15 percent to 16 percent -- will last at least until 2014.

Suburban poverty, already at a record level of 11.8 percent, will increase again in 2011.

Part-time or underemployed workers, who saw a record 15 percent poverty in 2010, will rise to a new high.

Child poverty will increase from its 22 percent level in 2010.