Yemen risks a return to civil war as Iran-backed rebels target a vital oil shipping route

CAIRO — Yemen is moving closer to a return to civil war as Iran-backed rebels threaten a crucial shipping alternative to the Strait of Hormuz.

Here’s a look at the intensifying conflict along the Red Sea that could tear the Arab world’s poorest country apart once more and potentially send oil prices even higher above the $100 per barrel mark.

What’s happening could return Yemen to civil war

Yemen is home to over 40 million people who fear a return to the civil war that killed 150,000 and brought many others to the brink of famine in one of the world’s most sprawling humanitarian crises. A ceasefire with Yemen’s internationally recognized government and a wider coalition backed by the Saudis began in 2022.

Now that truce is buckling.

Yemen's troubles are in part because of its strategic location at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula and alongside the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea. It's one of the busiest global shipping lanes and one that the world is turning to as Iran continues to target ships on the Strait of Hormuz.

The civil war left many Yemenis hungry and beyond the reach of aid. In a significant advance, Houthi and Yemeni officials said the Houthis had taken over Yemen’s port city of Mokha, which has been held by Yemen’s internationally recognized government.

That endangers another crucial entry point for food and other assistance.

The Houthis' takeover of Mokha puts them about 80 kilometers (50 miles) from the Bab el-Mandeb, creating further complications for shipping on the Red Sea — and not only for neighboring Saudi Arabia. The United States has shown signs of wanting to wrap up the Iran war and get oil-laden vessels on the move everywhere, not broaden the fight.

The Houthis’ grievance with the Saudis could affect global oil

The ceasefire’s fragile calm held until weeks ago, when the Houthis tested a Saudi-led blockade of rebel-held areas. The Saudis struck the international airport in the rebel-held capital, Sanaa, which the Houthis called an attempt to prevent a plane carrying Houthi leaders from returning home after attending the funeral of Iran’s late supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The Houthis already objected to the Saudis' backing of Yemeni government forces, which the rebels say have been pounding them this week with dozens of airstrikes after the rebels attacked several oil facilities and utilities in Saudi Arabia, wounding dozens of people.

Now, with the Iran war choking the Strait of Hormuz, the Houthis have a new way to inflict pain on their neighbor by declaring a blockade against Saudi Arabia and targeting its efforts to ship its oil via the Red Sea.

The Houthis' backer, Tehran, doesn’t object to causing the U.S.-allied Saudis pain as it tries to limit oil shipments from the Gulf in service of its war aims.

This week, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said the path was not closed to diplomacy but that his country would not hesitate to defend itself.

The Houthis have been relatively unscathed by the recent war

Among Iran’s armed proxies in the region, the Houthis have had a lower profile than Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. That, as well as their relative distance, has helped shield them from Israeli attack in the nearly three years since the war in Gaza began.

But the Houthis were quickly targeted with U.S. airstrikes when they tried to insert themselves into the regional conflict by targeting what they called Israeli-linked shipping on the Red Sea off Yemen’s west coast. Those attacks soon faded.

Now, the Houthis are back with a different target, aiming at ships and other assets of Saudi Arabia as it seeks to get its oil out to the world via the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb strait. That Red Sea corridor usually sees $1 trillion of goods move through it per year.

The Houthis are “no longer just positioned on the northern part of the western coast; they now control a much larger stretch of the coastline, bringing them closer to the areas around Bab al-Mandeb,” said Ahmed Nagi, a senior analyst on Yemen at the International Crisis Group.

For global oil consumers already worried about Iran’s attacks on vessels trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz, the threat to yet another global shipping lane is a flashing danger sign, especially with the price of crude oil again trading above $100 a barrel.