Marist poll: Mamdani holds commanding lead over Cuomo, others in NYC mayoral race

Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani holds a dominating lead over his opponents for the New York City mayoralty — this one, by 21 percentage points ahead of runner-up Andrew M. Cuomo, according to a poll by Marist University.

The poll finds that Mamdani's lead is halved if incumbent Eric Adams were to drop out, instead of non-Mamdani voters splintering among the candidates, Cuomo, the former governor; Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa, a talk-show host and founder of the Guardian Angels; and Adams, who has dismissed rumors he's on the precipice of accepting a job offer in the Trump administration in exchange for bowing out.

In Marist's latest four-way poll, in which likely voters were surveyed, Mamdani got 45%; Cuomo, 24%; Sliwa, 17%; Adams, 9%; and the rest were undecided.

Campaigns for Cuomo and Mamdani did not return messages Tuesday seeking comment.

The poll was conducted from Sept. 8 through Thursday, of 885 likely voters, with a margin of sampling error of +/- 4.1%.

Cuomo, running as an independent, has sought a two-man race, and there is pressure from Cuomo and Trump for Adams and Sliwa to drop out so Cuomo can mount the strongest challenge to Mamdani.

Mamdani, a democratic socialist, stunned the political establishment by trouncing Cuomo in the Democratic primary earlier this summer.

Polls taken in the months before the primary positioned Mamdani, a state assemblyman representing a part of northwest Queens, near the back of a field of challengers with greater name recognition and longer resumes. 

But Mamdani's populist platform — a rent freeze, free child care, municipal grocery stores, taxing the rich — coupled with an army of volunteers, a young charismatic candidate and a cutting-edge social media operation catapulted him to beat Cuomo, long the polling favorite, by nearly 13 percentage points.

For his part, Adams discounts whether the polls mean much. He's repeatedly noted that polls had him behind in 2021 before he won the primary.

"We have not done one TV ad, not one mailing. We have just started knocking on doors. This is the whole process. We've been here before," Adams said Tuesday at an unrelated event. He added: "Races are won within three to four weeks. That's when races are won."

But even among Mamdani detractors, his victory seems to be a fait accompli, according to those who answered Marist's poll.

"Regardless of the candidate they support, 63% of likely voters citywide believe Mamdani will win the election," Marist wrote. "20% believe Cuomo will win. Only 7% and 6%, respectively, think Adams or Sliwa will win."

In an email, Sliwa campaign spokesman Daniel Kurzyna said: "Polls missed the reality in the Democratic primary, they missed it in 2016, and they’re missing it now. New Yorkers know Curtis Sliwa is the only candidate ready to turn this city around and take on the failed political class." 

By Matthew Chayes

matthew.chayes@newsday.comchayesmatthew

Matthew Chayes, a Newsday reporter since 2007, covers New York City.