NFL conference championship Gridiron Guide picks: Take Seahawks, Patriots to reach Super Bowl

One of my dad's favorite sayings was: It's not how you start, it's how you finish.

That's especially true for the Patriots and Seahawks.

Wasn't it just a few months ago that some Patriots fans were counting out Tom Brady after a Monday Night meltdown in Kansas City? And then there's Seattle, which was three games back in the NFC West as late as Week 11.

Both top seeds are on the verge of football's ultimate game. But first, the surprising Colts and rock-solid Packers stand as obstacles.

Let's break down Championship Sunday.

COLTS AT PATRIOTS

Sunday, 6:40 p.m., Ch. 2

Patriots by 6 1/2; O/U: 54

All the talk before last week's divisional games was about the possibility of another Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning head-to-head clash, and a potential fourth meeting in the AFC Championship Game.

Instead, Manning's former team, the Colts, crashed the party with a surprising win. Two of the Colts' biggest weaknesses -- their offensive line and defense -- have become major strengths during the playoffs. Indy is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 AFC games overall.

Tom Brady is 13-3 overall in home playoff games. The Pats' home postseason numbers vs. the spread aren't that good, though: 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home playoff games, 3-11 ATS in their last 14 playoff games overall, and 0-5 ATS in their last five conference championship games.

Brady's home dominance will be the story here, with this being his best chance to win that elusive fourth Super Bowl title.

Andrew Luck & Co. may have that "happy to be here" mentality after last week's upset. I think this is too big a task for the Colts. Experience and talent win out.

The pick: Patriots, 34-24

PACKERS AT SEAHAWKS

Sunday, 3 p.m., Ch. 5

Seahawks by 7 1/2; O/U: 46 1/2

Is it possible that Aaron Rodgers' sore left calf is the most-talked-about injury in the country? Cheesehead fans are so anxious that they've been emailing, and even calling, the Packers with possible remedies, Rodgers said.

Rodgers told reporters after last week's win: "I think I've got 120 minutes left in me." Asked this week if he wanted to amend that statement, he quipped: "I just hope we don't go to overtime."

Well, at least Rodgers still has a healthy sense of humor.

These two teams met in the NFL 2014 season opener, a 36-16 win by host Seattle. Both teams are different -- and better.

Still, Seattle is at home, where it has won 25 of its last 27 games. It's 37-16-2 against the spread (ATS) in its last 55 home games. But that hasn't stopped the public, which is betting the underdog Packers at a 2-to-1 clip. If Rodgers and his calf were 100 percent, I'd follow that trend. Interesting stat: The past seven NFC Championship Games have been decided by seven or fewer points. The defending champs buck that trend.

The pick: Seahawks, 27-17

STAFF PICKS (against the spread)

JOHN BOELL (Regular season: 137-114-5; Playoffs: 2-6): Seahawks Patriots

BOB GLAUBER (Regular season: 125-126-5; Playoffs: 5-3): Seahawks Colts

TOM ROCK (Regular season: 120-131-5; Playoffs: 4-4): Seahawks Colts

KIMBERLEY A. MARTIN (Regular season: 121-130-5; Playoffs: 3-5): Packers Patriots