NFL Gridiron Guide: Picks & Fantasy Week 3
Darren McFadden of the Oakland Raiders rushes for a touchdown against the Buffalo Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. (Sept. 18, 2011) Credit: Getty
GIANTS (1-1) at EAGLES (1-1) 1 p.m.
OFF; O/U: OFF
Philly QB Michael Vick (questionable)
The NFL team that practices being injured (see: Deon Grant, flopping), actually has its players get injured. Right, d-coordinator Perry Fewell? This week's Giants casualty: WR Domenik Hixon. On the other side, the injury bug hit Eagles QB Michael Vick (concussion). He practiced Thursday and hopes to play Sunday. The Giants haven't beaten Philly since Nov. 9, 2008. I'm not sure if they win here, but they break a skid of six straight non-covers vs. Philly.
THE PICK: Giants
RONIS' FANTASY TAKE: Even if Vick doesn't play, start all of your regular Eagles.
JETS (2-0) at RAIDERS (1-1), 4:05 p.m.
Jets by 3.5; O/U: 41
There are certain weeks you won't hear Rex Ryan talk too much, and this has been one of those weeks. Does he know something we don't? The Jets' anemic rushing offense (28th at 73 ypg) could struggle even more without injured C Nick Mangold (82 straight starts). I think the balanced Raiders (8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog) give the Jets all they can handle.
THE PICK: Raiders
RONIS' FANTASY TAKE: Raiders WR Denarius Moore should be added in all leagues, but he faces a tough matchup here.
PATRIOTS (2-0) at BILLS (2-0), 1 p.m.
Patriots by 8.5; O/U: 53.5
Some people wouldn't be surprised to see the Pats and Jets atop the AFC East standings at 2-0, but what about those Buffalo Bills? Most valuable/inexpensive player is Bills RB Fred Jackson, who leads the NFL with 229 yards. He will make $1.75 million this season, and $1.83 million next year. Time to re-up and pay up, Bills! The Pats have won 15 straight vs. the Bills, haven't lost to them since 2003, and have covered their last 7 in Buffalo.
THE PICK: Patriots
FANTASY: Start Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. a poor Pats' 'D.' Bills WR David Nelson is one of the top waiver wire adds. Pats WR Deion Branch is a good start.
PACKERS (2-0) at BEARS (1-1), 4:15 p.m.
Packers by 3.5; O/U: 46
CBS has Survivor South Pacific this season. Meanwhile, the Bears are doing their own version: QB Survivor, as in Jay Cutler, who has been sacked an NFL-worst 11 times so far. No wonder he said, "I don't know" if he could survive the rest of this season. The Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Chicago, and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games in Chicago. Make it 11-3.
THE PICK: Packers
FANTASY: Green Bay's Jordy Nelson is a good option at WR3.
JAGUARS (1-1) at PANTHERS (0-2), 1 p.m.
Panthers by 3.5; O/U: 43
I had a 0.0 QB rating from my sofa last week, which was only 1.8 points behind Jags QB Luke McCown. Good job by me (I did well with my sham pillows), bad job by Cool Hand (and Four-Pick) Luke. Good luck, Blaine Gabbert! The Panthers get head coach Ron Rivera his first NFL win.
THE PICK: Panthers
FANTASY: Unless you have an elite quarterback, Cam Newton is starting for you.
DOLPHINS (0-2) AT BROWNS (1-1), 1 p.m.
Browns by 2.5; O/U: 41
Miami was 1-7 at home last season, and started 2011 0-2. However, the road is the Fins' friend. Miami is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 roadies. Worth a shot.
THE PICK: Dolphins
FANTASY: Miami RB Daniel Thomas shouldn't be a free agent.
BRONCOS (1-1) AT TITANS (1-1), 1 p.m.
Titans by 6.5; O/U: 42
I think these are two teams I just won't be able to get a handle on all season. The Broncos should be helped with the return of DE Elvis Dumervil, RB Knowshon Moreno, and WR Brandon Lloyd from injuries.
THE PICK: Broncos
FANTASY: Titans RB Chris Johnson finally has a big game after facing two tough run defenses in the first two weeks.
49ERS (1-1) at BENGALS (1-1), 1 p.m.
Bengals by 2.5; O/U: 40.5
Most of the ATS numbers favor the Bengals here (5-0 ATS in last five regular season games). For some reason, I think Niners coach Jim Harbaugh has his team ready on the road.
THE PICK: 49ers
FANTASY: Bengals WR A.J. Green has another big game.
LIONS (2-0) at VIKINGS (0-2), 1 p.m.
Lions by 3.5; O/U: 45
Detroit has lost 16 of its last 17 games in Minnesota, and is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six at Minny. But Detroit is 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following a win, and 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS victory.
THE PICK: Lions
FANTASY: Lions WR Nate Burleson is not getting enough love. He could finish as a Top 25 receiver in PPR leagues.
TEXANS (2-0) at SAINTS (1-1), 1 p.m.
Saints by 4; O/U: 53
The Texans are 2-0 ATS so far, but they've been inconsistent the past few seasons after covering. Houston is 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS win. Plus, the Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
THE PICK: Saints
FANTASY: Texans QB Matt Schaub hasn't been throwing as much with an improved 'D,' but he'll have to air it out this week.
RAVENS (1-1) at RAMS (0-2), 4:05 p.m.
Ravens by 4; O/U: 41.5
I think Baltimore's Pittsburgh Hangover should be worn off by now. The Ravens are 14-6 ATS against losing teams.
THE PICK: Ravens
FANTASY: Rams WR Mike Sims-Walker is Sam Bradford's top target now.
CHIEFS (0-2) at CHARGERS (1-1), 4:05 p.m.
Chargers by 14.5; O/U: 45.5
The Chiefs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in San Diego.
THE PICK: Chargers
FANTASY: Big games for Chargers RBs Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert. Use San Diego's defense, too.
FALCONS (1-1) at BUCCANEERS (1-1), 4:15 p.m.
Buccaneers by 1.5; O/U: 45.5
I love Bucs QB Josh Freeman and his late-game heroics, but Tampa Bay is dreadful in their Raymond James Stadium. Tampa is 5-17 ATS in their last 22 home games. maybe they should blow up the pirate ship in the end zone. Just a thought.
THE PICK: Falcons
FANTASY: Don't overreact to Bucs WR Mike Williams' one catch for minus-4 yards last week.
CARDINALS (1-1) at SEAHAWKS (0-2), 4:15 p.m.
Cardinals by 3.5; O/U: 42.5
My heart says Arizona, but all the numbers tell me Seattle (7-3 ATS last 10 home games). The Cards are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 roadies. In this series, the favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
THE PICK: Seahawks
FANTASY: Even against a shaky defense, it's not safe to use any Seahawks yet.
STEELERS (1-1) at COLTS (0-2), 8:20 p.m. Sunday
Steelers by 10.5; O/U: 39.5
The Colts have to win, and cover, one of these times, right? Is it too soon to mention them for the Andrew Luck sweepstakes? Guess not.
THE PICK: Steelers
FANTASY: Can't trust any Colts right now.
REDSKINS (2-0) at COWBOYS (1-1), 8:30 p.m. Monday
OFF; O/U: OFF
Dallas QB Tony Romo (questionable)
Two weeks ago, Dallas QB Tony Romo was a late-game choke artist. Last week, he became a tough-guy, able-to-play-through-busted-ribs kind of guy. I suspect "Tough Guy" Tony will play; even with Washington's DeAngelo Hall vowing to aim for the aforementioned ribs. Dallas has won 4 of the last 5 meetings, but the Redskins are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. Dallas.
THE PICK: Redskins
FANTASY: Romo is a risky play because of the injury, so make sure you have a backup (QB) plan.
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