NFL Gridiron Guide Week 1: Jets, Lions should roll

RAIDERS at JETS

Jets by 5 1/2; O/U: 40

TV: Ch. 2; Radio: ESPN

He's bacckk! The "he" is Rex Ryan. I know, I know, Ryan didn't go anywhere. But his bravado, which was missing most of last season, has returned. Like Rexy told Newsday's Bob Glauber: "We have the chip on our shoulder because nobody thinks we're going to be good." What I think is good for the Jets is that the Raiders named rookie Derek Carr their starting QB. The Jets' front seven is one of the NFL's best and Rex's 'D' should make Carr's first NFL start a rough one. The Jets were 6-2 at home against the spread (ATS) last season. A heavy dose of RBs Chris Johnson, Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell should take some heat off second-year QB Geno Smith. Let the talking continue.

The pick: Jets

GIANTS at LIONS

TV: Ch. 7, ESPN.

Radio: WFAN (660, 101.9)

Lions by 5 1/2; O/U: 47

When I heard Eli Manning say he was "a little nervous" about coordinator Ben McAdoo's new West Coast offense, the alarm was sounded. I've read that Tom Coughlin is going back to his old, super-intense ways from 2007. I have the ultimate respect for him, but based on what I've seen, I'm not sure how the Giants will improve upon last year's 7-9 record. Manning had a career-worst 27 interceptions as the G-Men had an NFC-worst minus-15 turnover margin. They need to prove they can function in the new offense. Too big a task on the road.

The pick: Lions

1 P.M. GAMES

SAINTS at FALCONS

Saints by 3; O/U: 52

I had a co-worker ask me if I was feeling OK after I predicted in Newsday's NFL preview that the Saints would beat my hometown Eagles in the NFC title game. I gotta call it like I see it in my crystal ball. My only knock with the Falcons is that they were the most boring team ever featured on HBO's "Hard Knocks." Atlanta endured a hard-knock season a year ago, but with a healthy Julio Jones and Roddy White, they're worth a shot.

The pick: Falcons

BROWNS at STEELERS

Steelers by 6 1/2; O/U: 41 1/2

Johnny Football, Johnny Football, Johnny Football. That's all I heard this summer. Johnny Manziel likes to rub his fingers together, symbolizing money, but the Browns haven't been a good bet in Week 1: Nine straight losses, and a 2-12-1 mark ATS in their last 15 season openers. Yikes!

The pick: Steelers

BENGALS at RAVENS

Ravens by 2; O/U: 43

A key, early AFC North contest. The Ravens will be without suspended RB Ray Rice for the first two games. Cincy wins outright.

The pick: Bengals

PATRIOTS at DOLPHINS

Patriots by 5; O/U: 47

Miami's best chance might be a healthy diet of Knowshon Moreno and the sweltering, possibly wet, Miami weather. Game-time temps should be in the 90s with a 50-percent chance of rain. Will Bill Belichick sport the hoodie? The Pats have won 10 straight openers, the longest current streak, and Tom Brady is an NFL-best 11-1 in Week 1. Works for me.

The pick: Patriots

BILLS at BEARS

Bears by 7; O/U: 47

Did you hear why Bears LB Lance Briggs missed practice on Monday? Ready for this? He was opening a restaurant in . . . wait for it . . . California! What in the name of Dick Butkus is going on? The Bears were an NFC-worst 4-10-2 ATS last season, but I can't find much of a reason to order an upset special.

The pick: Bears

REDSKINS at TEXANS

Texans by 3; O/U: 45 1/2

Houston had the worst turnover margin (-20) and ATS record (3-13) last season, yet are a 3-point favorite. Yes, they have a new coach and two monstrous DEs,

but I think RG3 has a lot to prove.

The pick: Redskins

JAGUARS at EAGLES

Eagles by 101/2; O/U: 52 1/2

Stat of the week: The Jags are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 openers. Philly is 6-21-1 ATS in its last 28 home games, but ended last season 3-1-1. Fly Eagles, fly!

The pick:Eagles

TITANS at CHIEFS

Chiefs by 3 1/2; O/U: 43 1/2

Week 1 is a big deal: Since 1978 (and excluding the strike-shortened 1982 season), 52 percent of Week 1 winners made the playoffs. Conversely, just 24 percent of the Week 1 losers made it. Chiefs buck last year's 2-6 ATS trend at home.

The pick: Chiefs

VIKINGS at RAMS

Rams by 3 1/2; O/U: 43 1/2

The Rams have one of the top young defenses, but the Vikes and first-time coach Mike Zimmer intrigue me. Taking a chance.

The pick: Vikings

4 P.M. GAMES AND LATER

49ERS at COWBOYS, 4:25 p.m. TV:Ch. 5

49ers by 5; O/U: 51 1/2

Jerry Jones is still thinking about the one that got away: Johnny Football. The Cowboys owner told ESPN.com he wanted to draft Johnny Manziel, but gave into his son & executive VP Stephen. Still, it stings: "I get madder every day about missin' [Manziel]." Can't you hear the pain in that Arkansas twang? I love it! Now, if only he worried more about that Dallas 'D'. A treat for San Francisco 'O.'

The pick: 49ers

PANTHERS at BUCS, 4:25 p.m.

Bucs by 2; O/U: 39

Radio: WFAN (660, 101.9)Call this one a gut feeling, as in, how is Panthers QB Cam Newton's gut feeling, namely, his injured ribs. The Bucs are a trendy pick to make the playoffs under new coach Lovie Smith, but I think the Panthers get the win here.

The pick: Panthers

COLTS at BRONCOS, 8:30 p.m.

Broncos by 7 1/2; O/U: 55 1/2

TV: Ch. 4

Radio: WFAN (660, 101.9)

Denver has the best home win percentage (.755) in season-opening games (40-13-1). And they also have Peyton Manning. But the Colts have Andrew Luck, Manning's successor, and I'll take the points here.

The pick: Colts

MONDAY NIGHT

CHARGERS at CARDINALS, 10:20 p.m.Cardinals by 3; O/U: 451/2

TV: ESPN; Radio: WCBS (880)

I have a sneaky suspicion this will be one of the best games of Week 1. (Aside: I wish there was an app to mute Chris Berman, who is calling the game, but then un-mute it when Trent Dilfer talks.) The Cards were 11-4-1 ATS last season. The Bolts were 6-3-1 ATS on the road. Tough call.

The pick: Chargers

STAFF PICKS (best bet in caps)

JOHN BOELL: Jets Lions Falcons Steelers Bengals PATRIOTS Bears Redskins Eagles Chiefs Vikings 49ers Panthers Colts Chargers

KIMBERLEY A. MARTIN: Vikings STEELERS Eagles Jets Bengals Bears Texans Chiefs Patriots Bucs 49ers Broncos Lions Chargers

BOB GLAUBER: Saints Rams Steelers Eagles Jets Ravens BEARS Texans Chiefs Patriots Panthers 49ers Broncos Giants Chargers

TOM ROCK: Saints Vikings Steelers Eagles JETS Bengals Bears Texans Titans Patriots Bucs 49ers Colts Giants Chargers