NFL Gridiron Guide: Week 16 picks

JETS (10-4) at BEARS (10-4)
Line: Bears by 1
Over/Under: 36
TV-Radio: Ch. 2,
ESPN 1050, 1 p.m.
I feel like a postal worker trying to ship the infamous leg lamp from the holiday classic, “A Christmas Story”: How do I handle this one? Carefully. It was just another “normal” week for Rex Ryan and the Jets, but let’s just stick to the real game of football. Can the Jets make it back-to-back huge road victories? Mark Sanchez is a game-time decision, but the Jets are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games, including 7-0 ATS in their past seven games on grass.
The pick: Jets

GIANTS (9-5) at PACKERS (8-6)
Line: Packers by 3
Over/Under: 43
TV-Radio: Ch. 5, WFAN (660), 4:15 p.m.
Is Giants coach Tom Coughlin still yelling at punter Matt Dodge? Geez, it wasn’t entirely Dodge’s fault, coach; how about the high snap on the infamous punt ... the way the offense went into a shell ... and a defense that all of a sudden thought NFL games were 52 minutes long instead of 60. The Giants said all the right things this week, including that this game really is a playoff game. If they win, they’re in the postseason for the fifth time under Coughlin. The Packers get QB Aaron Rodgers back, but this is the perfect spot for the Giants, who are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games as road underdog with a spread between a 1/2-point to three points.
The pick: Giants

SAINTS (10-4) at FALCONS (12-2)
Line: Falcons by 21/2
Over/Under: 481/2
TV-Radio: ESPN, WFAN (660) joined in progress,
Monday, 8:30 p.m.
Every time I believe in the Saints, they break my heart. I have to go with the numbers here, folks. Atlanta is tied with Detroit with an NFL-best 10-4 record against the spread (ATS). Plus, the Falcons are nearly unbeatable at home — 19-3 overall under coach Mike Smith; 19-1 under QB Matt Ryan. Need more proof? The Falcons are third in turnover margin (+13), while the defending Super Bowl champ Saints are near the bottom (-5). I think the Falcons’ running game delivers them NFC’s top seed and home-field advantage.
The pick: Falcons

COLTS (8-6) at RAIDERS (7-7)
Line: Colts by 3
Over/Under: 47, 4:05 p.m.
Indy, coming off a must-win win vs. the Jags, got some good news when RB Joseph Addai practiced the last two days after missing eight weeks with a shoulder injury. Still, Indy — which controls its playoff destiny; two wins and they’re in — won’t have WR Austin Collie for the rest of the season. Oakland, 0-5 against non-divisional AFC opponents, has a good running game and athletic defense, two things that can give Indy trouble, but the playoffs without Peyton Manning just doesn’t sound right.
The pick: Colts

COWBOYS (5-9) at CARDINALS (4-10)
Line: Cowboys by 61/2
Over/Under: 45
TV-Radio: NFL Network, WFAN (660),
Saturday, 7:30 p.m.
I guess there are worse ways you could spend Christmas night, namely at your in-laws.
The pick: Cowboys

49ERS (5-9) at RAMS (6-8)
Line: Rams by 21/2
Over/Under: 391/2
TV-Radio: Ch. 5, 1 p.m.
Imagine if the Niners win and Seattle loses? You’d have three teams at 6-9 in the NFC West, guaranteeing the NFL’s first divisional winner with a sub-.500 record! St. Louis (9-5 ATS) won’t let that happen.
The pick: Rams

SEAHAWKS (6-8) at BUCS (8-6)
Line: Bucs by 61/2
Over/Under: 44, 4:15 p.m.
Another must-win game for both teams. The Bucs are 8-5-1 ATS, though just 2-5 ATS at home, including last week’s loss to the Lions. Seattle always misses its home-field edge and is 2-5 ATS on the road.
The pick: Bucs

TITANS (6-8) at CHIEFS (9-5)
Line: Chiefs by 5
Over/Under: 421/2, 1 p.m.
The Titans still have a long, long shot at the playoffs, while the Chiefs are trying to hold off the surging Chargers and clinch the AFC West. Kansas City is tough at home, 6-0 outright, while the Titans are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games against AFC opponents.
The pick: Chiefs

RAVENS (10-4) at BROWNS (5-9)
Line: Ravens by 31/2
Over/Under: 39, 1 p.m.
Baltimore (13-4 ATS vs. losing teams) needs to keep pace with Pittsburgh. The Browns are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
The pick: Ravens

REDSKINS (5-9) at JAGUARS (8-6)
Line: Jaguars by 7
Over/Under: 451/2, 1 p.m.
Jacksonville needs to rebound quickly after a disappointing loss to Indy. The Skins, who played Dallas tough with QB Rex Grossman, should provide the Jags the perfect remedy.
The pick: Jaguars

PATRIOTS (12-2) at BILLS (4-10)
Line: Patriots by 8
Over/Under: 441/2, 1 p.m.
Both teams have 8-5-1 ATS records, but this isn’t a good spot for the Bills, who are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games as home underdogs.
The pick: Patriots

LIONS (4-10) at DOLPHINS (7-7)
Line: Dolphins by 31/2
Over/Under: 411/2, 1 p.m.
When the Lions turn their ATS record (10-4) into their actual record two seasons from now, I know two men of a certain age who will celebrate like a pair of kids. Miami is 2-5 ATS at home.
The pick: Lions

CHARGERS (8-6) at BENGALS (3-11)
Line: Chargers by 71/2
Over/Under: 44, 4:05 p.m.
T.O. is out (IR, knee), and that other Bengals’ WR, banged-up Chad Ochocinco, is trading barbs with coach Marvin Lewis, who called Ochocinco “mopey.” The whole situation? More like, dopey. San Diego will add to their disappointment.
The pick: Chargers

TEXANS (5-9) at BRONCOS (3-11)
Line: Texans by 21/2
Over/Under: 481/2, 4:05 p.m.
Two teams that could have new coaches next season. If I were Bill Cowher, I’d take a strong look at Houston. The pair could make sweet chin music.
The pick: Texans

VIKINGS (5-9) at EAGLES (10-4)
Line: Eagles by 141/2
Over/Under: 431/2
TV-Radio: Ch. 4, WFAN (660), 8:20 p.m.
Vikings QB Joe Webb said that if Michael Vick is playing at a 10, then he’s at a 5. Not close, Joe.
The pick: Eagles