NFL Gridiron Guide Week 4 picks: Lions should exploit Jets secondary

LIONS (2-1) at JETS (1-2), 1 p.m.

Lions by 1 1/2; O/U: 45

TV: Ch. 5; Radio: ESPN (98.7)

All the talk about replacing Geno Smith for backup Michael Vick has to slow down a bit. Even Vick said, "You've got to allow a young guy to work through the tough times." The Jets are 4-4 against the spread (ATS) in their last eight home games. The Lions are 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 road games. Quick aside: There's no truth to the rumor that the Las Vegas sports books turned down a request that every point spread be set at 2 in honor of Derek Jeter. But nine of this week's 13 games have spreads of four points or fewer. I can only imagine what Matthew Stafford and Calvin "Megatron" Johnson will do to the Jets' beleaguered secondary. Look out!

The pick: Lions

DOLPHINS (1-2) at RAIDERS (0-3), in London

Dolphins by 4; O/U: 41

Nothing says NFL excitement like Miami vs. Oakland . . . well, maybe it did back in the 1970s. At least the Brits will get to see Lions-Falcons in Week 8. The Raiders have lost 14 straight Eastern time zone games. Maybe they start a winning streak in the London time zone. Cheerio!

The pick: Raiders

BUCS (0-3) at STEELERS (2-1)

Steelers by 7 1/2; O/U: 45

Did the Falcons just score on the Bucs again? Tampa Bay's performance in Atlanta last Thursday night was one of the worst efforts I've seen by an NFL team in quite awhile. Good news: QB Mike Glennon will most likely start, and I think the 10-day layoff helps the Bucs. Also, the Steelers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games when favored by eight points or fewer.

The pick: Bucs

BILLS (2-1) at TEXANS (2-1)

Texans by 3; O/U: 41

Two of the bigger surprises atop their respective divisions. Texans QB Ryan Fitzpatrick goes against his former team. Interesting stat of the week: The Bills are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games, and Texans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. Take the points.

The pick: Bills

PANTHERS (2-1) at RAVENS (2-1)

Ravens by 3 1/2; O/U: 40 1/2

Panthers are tied for first in NFC with a +4 turnover margin, but are coming off a disappointing effort vs. Steelers. Ravens grinded out a two-point win against Browns but are 1-4 ATS in last five at home. Panthers are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss of more than 14 points. Tread softly.

The pick: Panthers

TITANS (1-2) at COLTS (1-2)

Colts by 7 1/2; O/U: 46

The public is backing this game at 72 percent, which always scares me. However, the Titans have lost five straight to the Colts and are 1-10 overall vs. Indy since 2008. Finally, they haven't beaten the Colts away from Tennessee since Dec. 30, 2007. Yikes!

The pick: Colts

PACKERS (1-2) at BEARS (2-1)

Packers by 1 1/2; O/U: 50

The Packers are struggling, but they have covered six of their last seven games vs. the Bears and four straight in the Windy City. Did you hear what Aaron Rodgers told Green Bay fans this week? "Five letters here just for everybody out there in Packerland: R-E-L-A-X." Aaron, I have my own five-letter word for you: C-O-V-E-R.

The pick: Packers

4 P.M. AND LATER GAMES

JAGUARS (0-3) at CHARGERS (2-1), 4:05 p.m.

Chargers by 13; O/U: 45

TV: Ch. 2; Radio: WFAN (660, 101.9)

QB Blake Bortles makes his first NFL start and for good reason: Jacksonville has been outscored 68-20 in the second half, but Bortles is responsible for both of the Jags' second-half TDs. The Chargers are 1-4 ATS as favorites of eight points or more, so I'll play a hunch here.

The pick: Jaguars

EAGLES (2-1) at 49ERS (1-2), 4:25 p.m.

49ers by 5; O/U: 50 1/2

TV: Ch. 5

Philly is the first NFL team to start 3-0 after trailing by 10 or more points in each game. Meanwhile, San Fran has been outscored 52-3 in the second half this season. (Philly leads opponents 74-24 in the second half). The Niners are 1-4 ATS in their last five at home under Jim Harbaugh, while Philly is 6-3 ATS on the road the last two seasons under Chip Kelly. Visiting underdogs are 21-15-1 ATS this season.

The pick: Eagles

FALCONS (2-1) at VIKINGS (1-2), 4:25 p.m.

Falcons by 3; O/U: 47

The Teddy Bridgewater Era begins in Minnesota, and the rookie QB said, "It's no pressure on me." Yeah, good luck with that train of thought. According to USA Today, of the 28 quarterbacks drafted in the first round from 2004 to 2013, 11 entered the starting lineup after Week 1 as rookies. Just two, Ben Roethlisberger and Vince Young, led their teams to winning records that season. This line scares me because the Falcons -- coming off a 42-point pasting of the Bucs -- are going against a first-time QB. But I'll bite.

The pick: Falcons

SAINTS (1-2) at COWBOYS (2-1), 8:30 p.m.

Saints by 3; O/U: 53 1/2

TV: Ch. 4; Radio: WFAN (660, 101.9)

I'm calling this one the Jekyll & Hyde Bowl. Which teams will show up? I know the Saints become the Aints on the road -- 3-9 ATS the last two seasons. But the Cowboys are 1-3 ATS as home underdogs of four or less points.

The pick: Saints

MONDAY NIGHT

PATRIOTS (2-1) at CHIEFS (1-2), 8:30 p.m.

Patriots by 3 1/2; O/U: 44 1/2

TV: ESPN; Radio: WFAN (660, 101.9)

The Pats are 3-8 ATS on the road the last two seasons, and the Chiefs have dropped six straight covers at home and are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 at Arrowhead. However, Pats are tied for NFL-best +6 turnover margin. KC is last in the NFL at -5. Tom Brady needs 219 passing yards to become sixth QB (can you name the other five?) in NFL history to reach 50,000-yard mark. He gets that and a cover.

The pick: Patriots

STAFF PICKS (against the spread; best bets in caps)

JOHN BOELL 27-21 overall, 1-2 best bets; Last week: 12-4: Lions Raiders Bucs Packers Bills Panthers Colts Jaguars Eagles FALCONS Saints Patriots

BOB GLAUBER 19-29, 1-2; Last week: 9-7: Jets Dolphins Steelers Packers Texans Ravens Colts Chargers 49ers Falcons SAINTS Chiefs

TOM ROCK 22-26, 1-2; Last week: 10-6: Jets Dolphins Bucs Bears Bills Panthers Colts Chargers Eagles FALCONS Saints Patriots

KIMBERLEY A. MARTIN 24-24, 1-2; Last week: 11-5: Lions Dolphins Steelers Packers Texans Ravens Colts Jaguars 49ers Falcons Saints PATRIOTS