Numbers don't always tell the tale

One of the keys to success in fantasy baseball is digging deeper than the surface numbers. How many people want a pitcher with a 2-4 record and 4.13 ERA? Not many, but when I tell you that pitcher is Nationals righthander Jordan Zimmermann, do you change your mind?

Zimmermann hasn't been getting many strikeouts, until Thursday when he had 11 in 6 1/3 innings, but the bullpen blew the lead. Some may be down on him because the Nationals aren't good. That doesn't mean he can't win games.

Expect the K/9 of 6.56 to increase, the control is excellent with a BB/9 of 2.06 and a fielding independent pitching (FIP) ERA of 2.72 indicates how good he's pitched. He returned from Tommy John surgery late last season and will get stronger.

John Danks (White Sox, SP): Danks isn't as bad as an 0-6 record, 4.50 ERA and 1.44 WHIP show. He's coming off his worst start, but poor run support is the problem. Danks has a 6.92 K/9, 2.77 BB/9, and a 3.95 FIP ERA. Buy.

Adam Dunn (White Sox, DH): Whether it's the adjustment to designated hitter, the change of leagues or the slow recovery from an appendectomy, Dunn has been bad with just four home runs in 108 at-bats. Bet on the consistency since Dunn has seven consecutive seasons of at least 38 home runs. Buy.

Zach Britton (Orioles, SP): Very impressive for a rookie with good control and he induces ground balls. He doesn't get a lot of strikeouts and people get enamored with rookies. A 2.42 ERA and 1.02 WHIP aren't sustainable. In non-keeper leagues, sell.

Shin-Soo Choo (Indians, OF): The Indians are off to a great start despite not much from Choo, who hit .300 and went 20-20 the last two seasons. He will get to 20-20 again. Buy.

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Alfonso Soriano (Cubs, OF): Batting .260 with 11 home runs and 23 RBIs, but striking out 27 percent of the time with a walk rate of 3 percent. Will hit for power, but at age 35, he's not going to steal bases. Sell.

Jake Arrieta (Orioles, SP): Strikeout rate has increased from 4.66 last season to 7.74 and BB/9 has improved to 3.57. Buy.

Madison Bumgarner (Giants, SP): Dropped to 0-6 Friday, but has pitched better than the record. A 6.94 K/9 and a 3.47 BB/9 with a 3.28 FIP mean you should buy.

Travis Wood (Reds, SP): A 5.28 ERA and 1.47 WHIP make you wince, but an 8.12 K/9, 2.84 BB/9, .356 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), and 64 percent strand rate scream bad luck. Buy.

Roger Bernadina (Nationals, OF): Will get a chance to win the starting job in center with Rick Ankiel injured. Has three stolen bases in seven games and can be added in deep mixed leagues.

Chris Denorfia (Padres, OF): Should get playing time while hitting for an anemic offense. Batting .370 with three home runs and two stolen bases in 54 at-bats. All statistics entering Friday.