Obama might now do more on climate, energy

"We want our kids to grow up in an America . . . that isn't threatened by the destructive power of a warming planet." That was the president in his acceptance speech Tuesday night. Now that President Barack Obama has won re-election, apparently, he feels free to talk about climate change -- a topic notably absent during the campaign. But, what does he actually plan to do about it?

An Obama second term could have fairly significant implications for energy and climate policy. Many of the bigger initiatives from his first term now won't likely be repealed, from strict fuel-economy standards on automobiles to regulations on coal-fired power plants. And those could all have a modest effect on the America's oil use, its energy mix -- and ultimately its heat-trapping carbon emissions. Yet, doing anything bigger on climate change will likely require working with a Republican Congress.

Stricter fuel-economy standards are here to stay. In his acceptance speech, Obama promised to work with Congress on "freeing ourselves from foreign oil."

Yet, his most ambitious move on this front won't require Congress at all. His administration has already set rules requiring new passenger vehicles sold in the United States to average 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025, up from 29 miles per gallon today. That these rules won't be repealed is itself significant -- automakers will now keep working on ways to meet them. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects this measure to save 2.2 million barrels of oil per day by 2035.

The Environmental Protection Agency's existing rules on coal plants will survive. In Obama's first term, the EPA set strict limits on mercury pollution from coal-fired plants and put an upper limit on the amount of carbon dioxide that could be emitted from any new power plant built in the United States.

Combine those EPA rules with cheap natural gas and rising mining costs, and coal is in trouble: The Brattle Group expects one-fifth to one-fourth of the country's older coal plants to retire by 2016. Republicans have vowed to repeal or relax these rules, but Obama is now in a position to block them.

The EPA could also set new rules on polluters. There are plenty of unfinished EPA rules on the horizon, all technically mandated by the Clean Air Act. The agency has to figure out how to regulate carbon dioxide from existing power plants, refineries, cement plants, and so forth. There are standards for ground-level ozone pollution (smog) that still need to be revamped. And the EPA faces a choice on how to regulate toxic coal ash waste from power plants. Depending on how the Obama administration handles these rules -- and assuming natural gas stays cheap -- coal could decline even further.

Natural gas drilling could face tighter regulation. The natural gas boom in the United States, driven by new drilling techniques known as fracking, has upended the energy industry. But fracking also brings with it plenty of concerns -- from air pollution to potential water contamination. So far, the states have been regulating the drilling boom. But federal officials have signaled that they may increase oversight in some areas, such as developing national standards for wastewater disposal.

That's an area to watch.

Carbon emissions could keep falling -- though that's not assured. A recent analysis by Resources for the Future found that the United States is on pace to cut carbon emissions 16.3 percent by 2020. That's roughly in line with what Obama has promised in international climate negotiations.

Bigger action on climate will require Congress. Obama has signaled at many points that he would be open to more sweeping action to tackle global warming. He has proposed a clean energy standard that would require utilities to get a greater portion of their electricity from renewables.

Joseph Aldy, a former White House official, has hinted that Obama would be open to a carbon tax if Republicans were willing to negotiate.