Hochul beating Blakeman in Nassau, Suffolk

ALBANY — In the end, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman may have failed to carry his home county in his effort to upset Democratic incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul.

Hochul held a slim lead over Blakeman on Long Island on Wednesday, according to preliminary numbers from the Nassau and Suffolk counties’ boards of elections.

In Nassau, Hochul led Blakeman by 216 votes as of Wednesday night, 263,296 to 263,080 votes, with one precinct still unreported. And in Suffolk, Hochul led by 4,040 votes, 270,778 to 266,738, with three precincts unreported.

That is a marked turnaround from Hochul’s first election campaign in 2022, when Long Island was a stronghold for then-U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley). Zeldin won his home county by 17 percentage points, and Nassau by 10 points. He lost to Hochul by 6 points statewide.

Blakeman trailed Hochul statewide by 20 percentage points Wednesday.

Hochul not only improved her performance compared with 2022 against Zeldin, but Blakeman fell far short of overall Republican turnout on Long Island four years ago.

Blakeman received nearly 87,000 fewer votes in Nassau and Suffolk counties, compared with Zeldin's numbers four years ago. And Hochul won 66,000 more votes in those counties than she did in 2022.

Hochul's performance mirrored that of Democrats nationwide, with the party winning seven seats in the U.S. Senate and 23 seats as of Wednesday evening in the House, in an election that was largely seen as a referendum on President Donald Trump.

Larry Levy, executive dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University, said Blakeman’s underperformance was due to a number of factors, including his close ties to Trump and Trump’s immigration crackdown.

Levy said the idea that Blakeman might perform well on Long Island and in the New York City suburbs was central to the state Republicans’ strategy to protect GOP seats in local communities and Congress. But that didn't happen.

"The candidate who most failed to meet expectations was Blakeman," Levy said.

That poor performance, and the general national mood that favored Democrats, hurt down-ballot Republicans in places like the Town of Hempstead, where John R. Ferretti lost his bid for his first full term as supervisor.

Blakeman’s campaign did not return a call for comment.

Hochul's campaign communications director Sarafina Chitika said the campaign made a heavy investment of both time and money in its Long Island operations, including by opening six field offices and knocking on over 200,000 doors in Nassau County alone.

And the governor’s messaging on affordability hit home on Long Island, she said.

"She went after Blakeman on costs for jacking up property taxes, for defending Donald Trump's record high gas prices, and for promising to cut Medicaid in half," she said.

Nassau County Republican chairman Joseph Cairo defended Blakeman, saying he ran an impressive campaign for governor.

"At the same time, the voters have spoken and we respect their decision," Cairo said in a statement.

Nassau County Democratic chair Jay Jacobs, who also leads the state Democrats, could not be reached for comment.

Assemb. Charles Lavine (D-Glen Cove) said one difference in Hochul’s performance in the last two elections is that Long Island voters had become more familiar and comfortable with her.