Setback on matching funds could alter dynamics of Blakeman-Hochul race

ALBANY — The decision to disqualify Republican Bruce Blakeman from the state’s public campaign finance program may fundamentally change the calculus of his campaign for governor.

Analysts and political observers say last week's vote may push the Nassau County executive to seek out more donors willing to make the maximum campaign contributions or spur the creation of a super political action committee (PAC) that can attract even more money than campaign committees.

When the Democratic-majority state Public Campaign Finance Board voted 4-3 along party lines to remove Blakeman from the program over a paperwork issue, it took up to $3.5 million off the table that he could have used during the general election against Gov. Kathy Hochul.

Blakeman already faced an uphill battle against Hochul, the incumbent Democrat who has $20 million in her campaign account. Hochul also has the Democrats’ sizable enrollment advantage and the bully pulpit her office affords.

But Richard Briffault, an election law professor at Columbia Law School, said Blakeman doesn’t necessarily need to be able to match Hochul’s fundraising. He just needs to raise the money to make himself competitive.

"Most of the evidence on this is that it's not a matter of parity," he said. "It's just a matter of enough" 

In 2026, enough will likely mean upward of $30 million, based on the 2022 governor’s race. Lee Zeldin, the 2022 GOP nominee, raised more than $23 million and spent more than $16 million.

Additionally, two super PACs that supported Lee Zeldin spent $20 million, which helped him close a huge spending gap Hochul had opened over him.

Campaign finance law allows those outside groups to raise and spend unlimited sums of money on election activity, though they cannot coordinate strategy or spending with the candidates they support.

The board decision to cut off Blakeman's access to public funds is also a potential opportunity, said Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor at Northeastern University

"If they can spin it in such a way that it's perceived by voters and donors to be a legitimate grievance, it's conceivable that they could embrace his campaign in a way that attracts sizable numbers of campaign contributions that allow him to make up for at least some of these funds," he said.

Fundraising pitch

Blakeman’s campaign had a similar thought.

Within two hours of the vote Tuesday, Blakeman’s team sent out a fundraising email accusing the board of trying to "kneecap" his campaign.

All the recommended donation amounts were within the threshold to qualify for the matching funds program he had just been kicked out of.

Blakeman’s campaign also confirmed it plans to file a lawsuit over the vote.

Briffault, the Columbia election law professor, questioned the board’s decision to remove Blakeman and other gubernatorial candidates from the program, which was open to candidates for governor for the first time this year.

"It is self-sabotaging for the public campaign finance board to do something like this in the first major test of the New York State public campaign financing system," he said.

Taking away the potential for millions in state funds during the early part of the general election campaign means Blakeman will need to build a larger donor base. And those donors will have to make a judgment call in an election year that appears to be favorable to Democrats, Briffault said.

"So maybe they put their money in holding and protecting Republican seats rather than trying to knock off incumbent Democrats," he said.

In a statement, Blakeman brushed off the potential impact the board’s decision might have on the campaign. He noted that the campaign has already received more than 5,000 small-dollar donations and he criticized Hochul for taking donations from deep-pocketed donors such as Uber and New York City hospital executives.

"We’re challenging this blatantly partisan ruling in court, and at the same time, we’re building a powerhouse fundraising operation fueled by the everyday working man and woman who supports cutting taxes, slashing utility bills, and stopping the nonsense policies that are making New York unaffordable and unsafe," he said.

Even if his campaign is ultimately successful in court, it could still be months before he begins to receive funds from the program.

Financial position

Blakeman has not yet managed to replicate the initial outpouring of financial support Zeldin received.

Zeldin faced a four-way primary and declared his candidacy in April 2021, 18 months before the election. Three months later he reported raising more than $3 million.

Blakeman entered the race in December, 11 months before the election. His most formidable primary challenger, Rep. Elise Stefanik, dropped out of the race shortly after Blakeman announced he was running.

Blakeman’s campaign brought in $1.4 million in the first month, according to his January campaign finance report. Most of it, $1.2 million, came from transfers from his county executive campaign account and the Nassau County Republican Committee.

Chapin Fay, a Republican strategist, downplayed the potential loss of public funds. He noted that Blakeman’s pollster, McLaughlin & Associates, does polling work for President Donald Trump, giving Blakeman a line to some of the donors in Trump’s orbit.

Fay also said that Blakeman and his political patron, Nassau County GOP Chairman Joseph Cairo, were among the best fundraisers in the state.

"Honestly I was surprised they were going to participate in the program," he said. "I do think they have an incredible fundraising operation."

Fay said the loss of the funding may accelerate plans for a wealthy donor to jump into the race with a super PAC backing Blakeman but added he wasn’t sure it was necessary at this point.

Fay pointed to the recent Siena University poll that showed Blakeman had closed the gap between himself and Hochul by 7 points in one month.

And Fay said he expects that gap to narrow further as voters and wealthy donors begin to pay attention to the race.

"I think he’s in better shape than you’d think than having read the news and social media on this decision," he said. "It’s going to tighten up, that’s how it works."